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Works}{\operator Benjamin C. Works} {\creatim\yr2004\mo10\dy17\hr16\min51}{\revtim\yr2004\mo10\dy18\hr9\min22}{\version12}{\edmins75}{\nofpages7}{\nofwords3179}{\nofchars18126}{\*\company Vangard DevGroup-SIRIUS}{\nofcharsws21263}{\vern24689}}\margl1440\margr1440 \widowctrl\ftnbj\aenddoc\noxlattoyen\expshrtn\noultrlspc\dntblnsbdb\nospaceforul\hyphcaps0\formshade\horzdoc\dgmargin\dghspace180\dgvspace180\dghorigin1440\dgvorigin1440\dghshow1\dgvshow1 \jexpand\viewkind1\viewscale100\pgbrdrhead\pgbrdrfoot\splytwnine\ftnlytwnine\htmautsp\nolnhtadjtbl\useltbaln\alntblind\lytcalctblwd\lyttblrtgr\lnbrkrule\nobrkwrptbl\snaptogridincell\allowfieldendsel\wrppunct \asianbrkrule\rsidroot8862769\newtblstyruls\nogrowautofit \fet0\sectd \linex0\endnhere\sectdefaultcl\sectrsid5973714\sftnbj {\*\pnseclvl1\pnucrm\pnstart1\pnindent720\pnhang {\pntxta .}}{\*\pnseclvl2\pnucltr\pnstart1\pnindent720\pnhang {\pntxta .}} {\*\pnseclvl3\pndec\pnstart1\pnindent720\pnhang {\pntxta .}}{\*\pnseclvl4\pnlcltr\pnstart1\pnindent720\pnhang {\pntxta )}}{\*\pnseclvl5\pndec\pnstart1\pnindent720\pnhang {\pntxtb (}{\pntxta )}}{\*\pnseclvl6\pnlcltr\pnstart1\pnindent720\pnhang {\pntxtb (} {\pntxta )}}{\*\pnseclvl7\pnlcrm\pnstart1\pnindent720\pnhang {\pntxtb (}{\pntxta )}}{\*\pnseclvl8\pnlcltr\pnstart1\pnindent720\pnhang {\pntxtb (}{\pntxta )}}{\*\pnseclvl9\pnlcrm\pnstart1\pnindent720\pnhang {\pntxtb (}{\pntxta )}}\pard\plain \qc \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15419527 \fs20\lang1033\langfe1033\cgrid\langnp1033\langfenp1033 {\b\fs24\insrsid15419527 SI}{\b\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 RIUS: The Strategic Issues Research Institute \par }{\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 Benjamin C. Works, Executive Director \par 1515 Jeff Hwy #408 * Arlington, VA 22202}{\fs24\insrsid15419527 \par }{\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 703 415-1191; }{\field\flddirty{\*\fldinst {\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 HYPERLINK "http://www.siri-us.com;/"}{\fs24\insrsid13840805\charrsid4804488 {\*\datafield 00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000170000001a00000077006700720069006700670040007400680065006e006500770061006d00650072006900630061006e002e0063006f006d000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b420000006d00610069006c0074006f003a00770067007200690067006700 40007400680065006e006500770061006d00650072006900630061006e002e0063006f006d000000310000}}}{\fldrslt {\cs15\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 www.siri-us.com;}}}{\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 \par E-mail: Benworks@AOL.Com \par --}{\i\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 Speak the Truth and Shame the Devil}{\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 -- \par }{\b\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 \par Strategic Issues Today}{\b\fs24\insrsid15419527 \par }{\b\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid8875647 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15419527 {\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 To Unsubscribe, send a terse e-message to }{\field\flddirty{\*\fldinst {\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 HYPERLINK mailto:benworks@aol.com }{\fs24\insrsid13840805\charrsid4804488 {\*\datafield 00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b020000001700000011000000620065006e0077006f0072006b007300400061006f006c002e0063006f006d000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b300000006d00610069006c0074006f003a00620065006e0077006f0072006b007300400061006f006c002e0063006f00 6d000000651000}}}{\fldrslt {\cs15\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 benworks@aol.com}}}{\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 \par A formatted report may be viewed at: }{\field\flddirty{\*\fldinst {\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 HYPERLINK http://www.siri-us.com/issues.html }{\fs24\insrsid13840805\charrsid4804488 {\*\datafield 00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000170000002300000068007400740070003a002f002f007700770077002e0073006900720069002d00750073002e0063006f006d002f006900730073007500650073002e00680074006d006c000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b460000006800740074007000 3a002f002f007700770077002e0073006900720069002d00750073002e0063006f006d002f006900730073007500650073002e00680074006d006c0000000400b1}}}{\fldrslt {\cs15\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 http://www.siri-us.com/issues.html}}}{ \fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid4327036 {\fs24\insrsid4327036 \par }{\fs24\insrsid3547010 \par }{\fs24\insrsid4327036 SIT 04-10-18\tab October 18, 2004 \par \par }{\b\fs24\insrsid4327036 The }{\b\fs24\insrsid4327036\charrsid4327036 War on Terror: Hysterias, Crowds and Messages}{\b\fs24\insrsid4327036 \par }{\b\fs24\insrsid6379593\charrsid4327036 \par }\pard \qj \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid6379593 {\i\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid6379593\charrsid6379593 Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, \par while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.}{\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid6379593 \par - Charles Mackay; }{\i\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid6379593 Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds}{\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid6379593 ; \par Preface to the 1852 Edition, p. xx \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid4327036 {\fs24\insrsid4327036 \par Many pundits and some analysts try to artificially tie all the elements waging terror and insurrection around the world into one tidy commonality, requiring one universal strategy and solution. No theory could be more counter-productive. }{ \fs24\insrsid6379593 But there are commonalities we must not lose sight of.}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 \par \par In short, Palestinian terror directed at Israel is a classic liberation struggle against a focused target \endash though Yas}{\fs24\insrsid6379593 se}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 r Arafat has waged it stupidly for the last four years. The Chechen terrorist war against Russia is also a classic campaign, and also stupidly vicious. And both of these counter-productive \'93struggles\'94 are bastard children of more classical \'93 resistance campaigns\'94 waged by the IRA in Ulster and the Basque Separatist ETA in Spain. }{\fs24\insrsid7429589 T}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 hese }{\fs24\insrsid1523923 nationalist/resistance }{\fs24\insrsid4327036 campaigns are }{\fs24\insrsid7429589 not } {\fs24\insrsid4327036 the concern of this report, but principles of analyzing mass hysterias and crafting counter-messages to their terrorist messages will apply. \par }{\fs24\insrsid4544512 \par At the same time, these disparate groups have kindred interests with other nationalist and Internationalist-Universalist groups which are the subject of this enquiry and track each other in the Media. As an example, the \'93necklace\'94 form of mob execution (a tire is set afire around a victim\rquote s neck) made the leap from South Africa to Haiti in the early 1990s. And Tom Friedman makes two important points clear in }{\i\fs24\insrsid4544512 Longitudes and Attitudes}{ \fs24\insrsid12798413 (2003):}{\fs24\insrsid4544512 first, that Al-Qaeda began planning its 9-11 attacks while the Oslo Process between Israel and Palestine was still underway \endash the 9-11 abomination had }{\fs24\insrsid12798413 very little}{ \fs24\insrsid4544512 directly to do with Israel.}{\fs24\insrsid1523923 }{\fs24\insrsid4544512 Second, he points out that the suicide bombs central to Ya}{\fs24\insrsid6379593 s}{\fs24\insrsid4544512 s}{\fs24\insrsid6379593 e}{\fs24\insrsid4544512 r Arafat\rquote s \'93Second Intifada\'94 became clear in Feb. 2002, some months after the suicide aircraft bombers attacked in New York and Washington. And again, both Arafat\rquote s suicide tactics and Al-Qaeda\rquote s 9-11 assault must be ranked as colossal strategic blunders: Arafat lost considerable }{\fs24\insrsid3547010 sympathy and virtually all his diplomati c credibility, while Al Qaeda provoked the wrath of the American People and lost its staging camps in Afghanistan as a rapid result of its attack}{\fs24\insrsid4544512 .}{\fs24\insrsid4544512\charrsid4544512 \par }{\fs24\insrsid4327036 \par For the purpose of this report, there are two major groups of terrorists pursuing two separate wars against US}{\fs24\insrsid5204651 forces}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 and \'93The Great Satan\'94 of the West. One is domestic Iraqi resistance against our occupation forces and the new interim government there}{\fs24\insrsid5204651 ,}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 and their purpose is entirely a domestic response to our imposition of government and order. The second is the global war waged against us by Osama bin Ladin, Al Qaeda and other extremist offshoots of the Islamic Brotherhood movement}{ \fs24\insrsid5204651 ,}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 and their purpose is a vague universal Muslim fundamentalist empire \endash the }{\i\fs24\insrsid4327036 Umma\emdash }{\fs24\insrsid7429589\charrsid7429589 and}{\i\fs24\insrsid7429589 }{\fs24\insrsid4327036 a restoration of the \'93Caliphate.\'94 A second expressed}{\fs24\insrsid5204651 (and impossible)}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 goal is to conquer}{\fs24\insrsid5204651 /convert}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 The Great Satan, and the third goal was to eject the US from its presence in Saudi Arabia. It is true that most of our forces have transferred out of Saudi Arabia }{\fs24\insrsid5204651 --}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 but as a consequence of the victory over Saddam\rquote s Baathist regime}{\fs24\insrsid5204651 .}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 }{\fs24\insrsid5204651 A}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 ny effort by Al Qaeda to claim credit would be a \'93Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc\'94 fallacy in logic \endash \'93 the rooster taking credit for the dawn\'94 is the simplest expression of the \'93After This, }{\fs24\insrsid5204651 T}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 herefore Because of This\'94 sophistry}{\fs24\insrsid6425746 (see file}{\fs24\insrsid4750588 }{\field{\*\fldinst {\fs24\insrsid4750588 HYPERLINK "}{\fs24\insrsid4750588\charrsid4750588 http://www.siri-us.com/backgrounders/fallacies.doc}{\fs24\insrsid4750588 " }{\fs24\insrsid13840805\charrsid14184944 {\*\datafield 00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b02000000170000003300000068007400740070003a002f002f007700770077002e0073006900720069002d00750073002e0063006f006d002f006200610063006b00670072006f0075006e0064006500720073002f00660061006c006c00610063006900650073002e0064006f00 63000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b6600000068007400740070003a002f002f007700770077002e0073006900720069002d00750073002e0063006f006d002f006200610063006b00670072006f0075006e0064006500720073002f00660061006c006c00610063006900650073002e0064006f006300000007 6500}}}{\fldrslt {\cs15\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid4750588\charrsid14184944 http://www.siri-us.com/backgrounders/fallacies.doc}}}{\fs24\insrsid4750588 }{\fs24\insrsid5204651 )}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 . \par \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15419527 {\fs24\insrsid15419527 \par }{\b\fs24\insrsid10714666\charrsid10714666 1. Crowd Psychology and the matter of Mass Hysterias: \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15337107 {\fs24\insrsid4327036 \par }\pard \ql \li360\ri0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin360\itap0\pararsid5985546 {\i\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid5985546\charrsid5985546 In reading the history of nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims}{ \i\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid5985546 }{\i\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid5985546\charrsid5985546 and their peculiarities; their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people becom e simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first. We see one nation suddenly seized, from its highest to its lowest members, with a fierce desire of military glory; another as suddenly becoming crazed upon a religious scruple; and neither of them recovering its senses until it has shed rivers of blood and sowed a harvest of groans and tears, to be reaped by its posterity.}{\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid5985546 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5985546 {\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid5985546 - Charles Mackay, LLD; }{\i\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid5985546 Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds}{ \fs24\cgrid0\insrsid5985546 ; Preface to the 1852 Edition \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15337107 {\fs24\insrsid5985546 \par The problems of Iraqi nationalist insurrection and Universalist Islamic Terrorism both stem from kindred forms of mass hysteria, fueled by both the messages of those movements\rquote leaders, and in reaction to our actions as a coalition opposing those movements.}{\fs24\insrsid4016186 }{\b\fs24\insrsid4016186\charrsid3682631 A clear \'93Cult of Death\'94 has emerged among Jihadis since 1998, and tracks back t o the Jihad against Russian forces in Afghanistan, though the fighters then were anything but suicidal. But those fighters had a tangible goal of \'93liberty or death.\'94 Today, some fight the \'93American occupation\'94 in Iraq for \'93 liberty or death.\'94 Some seem to be attracted by \'93death or glory,\'94 while the death cultists are allured by \'93Death and Glory.\'94}{\fs24\insrsid5985546 \par \par }{\fs24\insrsid12798413 The}{\fs24\insrsid926094 homicidal mass hysteria arose and gripped the French in the middle of their revolution, triggering the Reign of Terror}{\fs24\insrsid12798413 .}{\fs24\insrsid5985546 }{\fs24\insrsid12798413 A}{ \fs24\insrsid5985546 nd Osama\rquote s \'93Cult of Death\'94 is not far afield from that French hysteria}{\fs24\insrsid926094 . Philosophers, psychologists and others have been seeking to understand the nature of crowds and mass psychology ever since, starting with Charles Mackay\rquote s }{\i\fs24\insrsid926094\charrsid926094 Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds}{\fs24\insrsid926094 (1852). The study continues with Gustave LeBon\rquote s }{\i\fs24\insrsid926094\charrsid926094 The Crowd}{\fs24\insrsid926094 (1896)}{\fs24\insrsid3547010 ,}{ \fs24\insrsid926094 written during the rise of Socialism, Communism and Labor movements. Eric Hoffer updated this course of inquiry in the wake of World War II, in his }{\i\fs24\insrsid926094 The True Believer}{\fs24\insrsid926094 (1951) and studied Hitler and Stalin with particular care. }{\fs24\insrsid10954033 The latest works on America bashing are}{\fs24\insrsid15337107 Mendoza}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 ,}{\fs24\insrsid15337107 Montaner, and Vargas Llosa}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 , A.}{\fs24\insrsid15337107 ; }{\i\fs24\insrsid15337107\charrsid9377667 Guide to the Perfect Latin American Idiot}{\fs24\insrsid15337107 (2000)}{\fs24\insrsid4016186 ;}{\fs24\insrsid15337107 and Baruma & Margalis; }{ \i\fs24\insrsid15337107\charrsid360307 Occidentalism: The West in the Eyes of its Enemies}{\fs24\insrsid15337107 (2004).}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 }{\fs24\insrsid12798413 All are worth reading and can also illuminate the reader on the nature of the periodic induced mass-frenzies we call \'93democratic elections.\'94}{\fs24\insrsid926094\charrsid15337107 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15419527 {\fs24\insrsid926094 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5973714 {\fs24\insrsid926094 In 1962, Daniel J. Boorstin published an insightful look into the workings of formulating political and business press relations and propaganda, } {\i\fs24\insrsid926094 The Image: A Guide to Pseudo-Events in America}{\fs24\insrsid926094 ,}{\fs24\insrsid12798413 (1986 ed.);}{\fs24\insrsid926094 also an exploration of the rise of mass media in \'93The Graphics Revolution.\'94 The most useful update on this side of the question of how to formulate messages is Richard Viguerie\rquote s work, }{\i\fs24\insrsid926094 America\rquote s Right Turn}{\fs24\insrsid926094 (2004). }{\fs24\insrsid5973714 All the above cited books are currently in print.}{\fs24\insrsid5973714\charrsid15337107 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15419527 {\fs24\insrsid13138439 \par In referring to these books, we}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 can}{\fs24\insrsid13138439 better understand the mind of the mass movement leader, their followers and the message s they convey through the media to their opponents, their followers and to the world at large}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 (more below)}{\fs24\insrsid13138439 . By understanding those messages and how they do or do not fit, we can better craft counter-messages, as well as actions and activities that counter their growth and strength. Thus, we take fuel away from the fire of this Islamist Cult of Death.}{ \fs24\insrsid13138439\charrsid926094 \par }{\fs24\insrsid4327036 \par }{\b\fs24\insrsid10714666\charrsid10714666 2. Classifying Insurgents, Terrorists and Criminals: \par }{\fs24\insrsid10714666 \par }{\fs24\insrsid4327036 The questions most useful to ask ourselves when viewing terrorist groupings are: \par {\listtext\pard\plain\f3\insrsid4327036 \loch\af3\dbch\af0\hich\f3 \'b7\tab}}\pard \ql \fi-360\li720\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\jclisttab\tx720\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\ls2\rin0\lin720\itap0\pararsid4327036 {\fs24\insrsid4327036 Are their demands tractable or intractable \endash what is their desired end state? \par {\listtext\pard\plain\f3\insrsid4327036 \loch\af3\dbch\af0\hich\f3 \'b7\tab}Are their demands specific or vague? Discrete or Universalist? \par {\listtext\pard\plain\f3\insrsid4327036 \loch\af3\dbch\af0\hich\f3 \'b7\tab}How is ideology clothing itself in religious orthodoxy? \par {\listtext\pard\plain\f3\insrsid4327036 \loch\af3\dbch\af0\hich\f3 \'b7\tab}Are their tactical }{\fs24\insrsid6425746 methods, means and targets consistent with or anathema to the majority societal view}{\fs24\insrsid4025780 /values}{\fs24\insrsid6425746 of their co-religionists?}{\fs24\insrsid4327036 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15419527 {\fs24\insrsid4327036 \par }{\fs24\insrsid8862769 The sources of violence in Iraq are more complex than even our most probing reporters and analysts think, and it is important to understand their motives and target sets, grouping by grouping.}{\fs24\insrsid15419527 \par }{\fs24\insrsid8862769 \par {\listtext\pard\plain\f3\insrsid8862769 \loch\af3\dbch\af0\hich\f3 \'b7\tab}}\pard \ql \fi-360\li720\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\jclisttab\tx720\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\ls1\rin0\lin720\itap0\pararsid8862769 {\fs24\insrsid8862769 First there is the Shiite Militia of Muqtada al-Sadr, the al-Mehdi Army. In its fights with coalition and Iraqi government forces in April and September, some 4000 militia men were killed. Al-Sadr kept his focus on controlling citie s and neighborhoods, angling, ultimately for a political base that could win control of the government in eventual elections. But his courts were caught torturing and slaughtering opponents and his militia\rquote s behavior has offended the majority of Shiites in Najaf, Basra and other major cities of the }{\fs24\insrsid12915185 Shiite dominated }{\fs24\insrsid8862769 south.}{\fs24\insrsid12915185 Sadr\rquote s gone quiet in recent weeks, but remains a threat to order}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 and is widely understood to continue receiving aid from Iran\rquote s Ayatollahs}{\fs24\insrsid12915185 .}{\fs24\insrsid8862769 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid12915185 {\fs24\insrsid12915185 \par {\listtext\pard\plain\f3\insrsid12915185 \loch\af3\dbch\af0\hich\f3 \'b7\tab}}\pard \ql \fi-360\li720\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\jclisttab\tx720\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\ls1\rin0\lin720\itap0\pararsid12915185 {\fs24\insrsid12915185 Then there are those mostly Sunni groups spawned from }{\fs24\insrsid1523923 a combination of }{\fs24\insrsid12915185 Baathist remnants, nationalists, Sunni chauvinists and those offended by American mistakes in the occupation. These groups focus their attacks on American convoys and bases, using roadside bombs, mortars, rocket propelled grenades, etc. They}{ \fs24\insrsid5973714 normally }{\fs24\insrsid12915185 kill very few Iraqis in their attacks}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 on Americans}{\fs24\insrsid12915185 , but they also often assassinate government officials and attack government security force recruiting lines.}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 These groups are loosely confederated but in communications among themsel ves and with other major groups. They grow in strength and sympathy }{\fs24\insrsid5973714 when}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 US responses to their actions cause}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 ,}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 or are perceived to cause}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 ,}{ \fs24\insrsid8152298 widespread death of innocent civilian women, children and elderly.}{\fs24\insrsid7429589 There is also a Wahabist/Salafist Sunni Fundamentali st faction involved in this general grouping, as well as with Al Qaeda type groupings mentioned below.}{\fs24\insrsid12915185 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid4016186 {\fs24\insrsid4016186 \par }\pard \ql \li720\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin720\itap0\pararsid4016186 {\b\fs24\insrsid4016186\charrsid3682631 This local resistance strikes the observer as not dissimilar to IRA wannabes around Boston and other large cities, but with a lethality like the IRA Provos in Ulster. The attraction seems to be gaining bragging rights for the gunmen (who are not suicidal) and local power for their leaders. We shall see how this plays out moving past elections. \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid8152298 {\fs24\insrsid8152298 \par {\listtext\pard\plain\f3\insrsid8152298 \loch\af3\dbch\af0\hich\f3 \'b7\tab}}\pard \ql \fi-360\li720\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\jclisttab\tx720\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\ls1\rin0\lin720\itap0\pararsid12915185 {\fs24\insrsid8152298 Then there is Ansar al-Islam, originally held to be Kurdish allies of Osama and Al-Qaeda. Chased out of their lair on the Iranian border during the 2 003 war, they have blended into the fabric of resistance around Mosul, a city of 2 million nominally controlled by the Kurdish militias \endash }{\i\fs24\insrsid8152298\charrsid5914332 Peshmergas}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 \emdash }{\fs24\insrsid5002182 }{ \fs24\insrsid8152298 now }{\fs24\insrsid5002182 \'93}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 aligned}{\fs24\insrsid5002182 \'94}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 with the }{\fs24\insrsid5002182 US and}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 Baghdad. \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid8152298 {\fs24\insrsid8152298 \par {\listtext\pard\plain\f3\insrsid8152298 \loch\af3\dbch\af0\hich\f3 \'b7\tab}}\pard \ql \fi-360\li720\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\jclisttab\tx720\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\ls1\rin0\lin720\itap0\pararsid12915185 {\fs24\insrsid8152298 According to Canadian defense journalist Scott Taylor, Ansar al-Islam also boasts an Iraqi Turkmen component, centered in that ethnic community\rquote s strongholds of Kirkuk and Tal Afar. Mr. Taylor spent five days as their captive between 7-12 September 2004 and has just published a book, \'93Among the Others}{\fs24\insrsid10714666 ,}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 \'94}{\fs24\insrsid10714666 which}{ \fs24\insrsid8152298 document}{\fs24\insrsid10714666 s}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 the longstanding animosity between the Turkmen and Kurds}{\fs24\insrsid10714666 ,}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 a}{\fs24\insrsid10714666 s well as}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 his brutal treatment while their captive.}{\fs24\insrsid10714666 The Turkmen focus their attacks on US forces and Kurdish political and military targets}{\fs24\insrsid6425746 . Mr Taylor\rquote s experience and evidence suggests that Ansar Al-Islam may have more focused objective and tactics within Iraq than Al Qaeda and other Universalist Islamic terrorist groups.}{\fs24\insrsid5002182 The Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF) serves as the political voice.}{\fs24\insrsid4016186 }{\b\fs24\insrsid4016186\charrsid3682631 In Tal Afar, as the American attack began in early September, Mr. Taylor observed a clear \'93Cult of Death\'94 rejoicing in imminent martyrdom among the gunmen}{\b\fs24\insrsid4678662 , including his captors}{\b\fs24\insrsid4016186\charrsid3682631 . But among the Turkmen there is a clear perception of a Kurdish genocidal threat \endash their}{ \b\fs24\insrsid4678662 very}{\b\fs24\insrsid4016186\charrsid3682631 lives are at stake.}{\fs24\insrsid8152298 \par }\pard \ql \li360\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin360\itap0\pararsid10714666 {\fs24\insrsid8152298 \par {\listtext\pard\plain\f3\insrsid12915185 \loch\af3\dbch\af0\hich\f3 \'b7\tab}}\pard \ql \fi-360\li720\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\jclisttab\tx720\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\ls1\rin0\lin720\itap0\pararsid12915185 {\fs24\insrsid12915185 Next is Abu Mousab al-Zarqawi, the 37-year old Jordanian who some think is allied with Osama bin Ladin while others of us think he is an open rival to Osama and Al-Qaeda}{\fs24\insrsid1930952 (he declared allegiance to Osama on Oct. 17)}{ \fs24\insrsid12915185 . That question is secondary to the fact that Zarqawi\rquote s Monotheism and Jihad movement practices the most wanton forms of terror }{\fs24\insrsid7429589 similar to Al Qaeda\rquote s methods }{\fs24\insrsid12915185 and attracts Al Qaeda wannabes. }{\fs24\insrsid7429589 Recent reports indicate }{\fs24\insrsid12915185 Zarqawi reputedly pays his suicide bombers $10,000 in order to care for their families and that is a powerful incentive in a la nd with such high unemployment}{\fs24\insrsid7429589 and}{\fs24\insrsid12915185 where the vast majority has been impoverished since the war of 1991 and subsequent sanctions. Other Iraqi nationalist groups reportedly recruit desperate fathers for as little as $5000, according to an Army Lieutenant Co lonel who served in Iraq and is presently studying at the National Defense University. \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid10714666 {\fs24\insrsid10714666 \par }\pard \ql \li720\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin720\itap0\pararsid10714666 {\fs24\insrsid10714666 Zarqawi\rquote s favored attack pattern is the suicide bomb vehicle and he attacks civilians almost indiscriminately \endash his bombs have slaughtered Shiite school children as well as adults, Shiite clerics}{\fs24\insrsid6425746 , Christian churches and communities}{\fs24\insrsid10714666 , as well as US and Iraqi security forces. In the wider \'93war on Terror,\'94 these indiscriminate tactics and the videotaped butchering of foreign hostages redound against both Zarqawi\rquote s group and Al Qaeda. The vast majorities of Muslims in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Pakistan and elsewhere are revulsed by this indiscriminate slaughter}{\fs24\insrsid8408805 and increasingly cooperate with their authorities in countering th ese movements in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Iraq and elsewhere.}{\fs24\insrsid10714666 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid12915185 {\fs24\insrsid12915185 \par {\listtext\pard\plain\f3\insrsid8862769 \loch\af3\dbch\af0\hich\f3 \'b7\tab}}\pard \ql \fi-360\li720\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\jclisttab\tx720\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\ls1\rin0\lin720\itap0\pararsid8862769 {\fs24\insrsid8862769 We also have common gangsterism}{\fs24\insrsid6425746 , which includes kidnapping for financial gain \endash with Iraqi Christians frequently the target}{\fs24\insrsid8862769 . The weak and affluent are the targets. Complicating this is the temp tation for more organized groups to take control of \'93the rackets.\'94 For instance, Muqtada al-Sadr\rquote s al-Mehdi Army has been caught dabbling in the drug trade and is known to be behind the murder of Christian liquor merchants and DVD sellers in several cities. In neighboring Iran, the Ayatollahs control all trafficking in Vice }{\fs24\insrsid7429589 \endash prostitution, booze and drugs-- }{\fs24\insrsid8862769 through their militias and al-Sadr is emulating his Persian mentors.}{\fs24\insrsid12915185 Kidnappers are thought to have turned several foreigner hostages over to Abu Mousab Al-Zarqawi for eventual slaughter in exchange for cash.}{\fs24\insrsid8862769 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15419527 {\fs24\insrsid15419527 \par {\listtext\pard\plain\f3\insrsid8862769 \loch\af3\dbch\af0\hich\f3 \'b7\tab}}\pard \ql \fi-360\li720\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\jclisttab\tx720\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\ls1\rin0\lin720\itap0\pararsid8862769 {\fs24\insrsid8862769 Lastly we have murders for vengeance and blood feuds within the ethnic communities}{\fs24\insrsid8408805 ,}{\fs24\insrsid8862769 and the murder rate from feuds and crime is higher than anywhere else in the world except the major cities of So uth Africa, where the murder rate is twice that in Baghdad.}{\fs24\insrsid15419527 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15419527 {\fs24\insrsid15419527 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid5973714 {\fs24\insrsid4025780 Taken }{\i\fs24\insrsid4025780\charrsid4025780 in toto}{\fs24\insrsid4025780 we are faced with yet another classic counter-insurgency }{\fs24\insrsid2121665 or Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) }{\fs24\insrsid4025780 scenario in Iraq }{\fs24\insrsid2121665 (}{\fs24\insrsid4025780 one we can win even if we continue to stumble a bit} {\fs24\insrsid2121665 ), }{\fs24\insrsid4025780 coupled with a na\'efve global Islamist terrorist campaign, which we will also eventually win in conjunction with our Muslim state allies and their more moderate societies.}{\fs24\insrsid2121665 And I would like to note that modern history has more examples of successful counter-insurgencies, than of insurgency successes: I cite the Philippines (1899-1902) Malaysia (1947-54), and El Salvador as prominent successes. For more on 4GW and the problems/process of }{\fs24\insrsid5973714 countering }{\fs24\insrsid2121665 4GW, I refer readers to Thomas X Hammes\rquote }{\fs24\insrsid5973714 excellent}{\fs24\insrsid2121665 new book, \'93The Sling and the Stone.}{\fs24\insrsid5973714\charrsid5973714 }{\fs24\insrsid5973714 \par \par There are a couple of important points made in Eric Hoffer\rquote s }{\i\fs24\insrsid5973714 The True Believer}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 worth noting: he observed that in a mass movement, the \'93man of action\'94 usually overtakes \'93the man of words\'94 in leadership: Zarqawi is a man of action while Osama and his deputy,}{\fs24\insrsid8408805 Ayman}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 }{\fs24\insrsid8408805 al-}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 Zawahiri are men of words. Stalin was a man of action}{\fs24\insrsid8408805 to Lenin\rquote s man of words}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 . \par \par As to followers and recruits, Hoffer observes that people who sense their own defectiveness \endash \'93those who crave to be rid of an unwanted self (p.12) He expands: \'93 The less justified a man is to claiming excellence for his own self, the more ready he is to claim all excellence for his nation, his religion, his race or his holy cause (p. 15). This explains the lower ranks of terrorist organizations, including some of the suicide attackers. Others, we noted above, are desperate for money to save their families. \par \par In the case Al Qaeda/Zarqawi\rquote s followers, we also detect that there is a strong thread of egoism and even narcissism among their deputies, who plot suicide attacks but do not, themselves commit suicide. The willingness of captive operatives to brag about their plots and attacks is a good indicator of their relative egotism. \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15419527 {\fs24\insrsid4025780 \par }{\b\fs24\insrsid10714666\charrsid10714666 3. Crafting a Consistent Set of Counter-Messages}{\b\fs24\insrsid5985546 and Counter-Actions/Activities}{\b\fs24\insrsid10714666\charrsid10714666 : \par }{\fs24\insrsid10714666 \par }{\b\fs24\insrsid4678662 Saddam was building a mythical cult of personality and that\rquote s what Osama has been up to as well. But }{\b\fs24\insrsid1930952\charrsid3682631 Osama\rquote s message and vision \endash this cult of Death-- is a form of Nihilism cloaked in clerical robes}{\b\fs24\insrsid11359707 and pseudo-mysticism}{\b\fs24\insrsid1930952\charrsid3682631 : }{\b\fs24\insrsid11359707 this}{\b\fs24\insrsid1930952\charrsid3682631 offer}{\b\fs24\insrsid11359707 s}{ \b\fs24\insrsid1930952\charrsid3682631 nothing tangible. And the wantonness of }{\b\fs24\insrsid11359707 Al Qaeda\rquote s}{\b\fs24\insrsid1930952\charrsid3682631 violence is offensive to the Muslim mainstream, just as it is offensive to us. }{ \b\fs24\insrsid11359707 \par \par }{\b\fs24\insrsid3682631\charrsid3682631 What is the difference between terrorism practiced by Saddam and that practiced by Osama, Zarqawi and even al-Sadr? }{\b\fs24\insrsid1930952\charrsid3682631 T hus, Al Qaeda does not have the footings to support a mass movement; it is a cabal on the run.}{\b\fs24\insrsid3682631\charrsid3682631 }{\b\fs24\insrsid4678662 As Tom Friedman observed in the NY Times: \'93Osama bin Laden \endash he destroyed much, he built nothing. His lasting impact was like a footprint in the desert.\'94 (Oct. 12, 2001) \par \par }{\b\fs24\insrsid3682631\charrsid3682631 Al-Sadr has a broader base }{\b\fs24\insrsid4678662 among the poorer Shiites, }{\b\fs24\insrsid3682631\charrsid3682631 but has also revealed his malignant side}{\b\fs24\insrsid4678662 during his occupation of Najaf}{\b\fs24\insrsid3682631\charrsid3682631 . So the coalition and the new governments in Afghanistan and Iraq have almost all the high ground and resources to win in the long term.}{\b\fs24\insrsid1930952\charrsid3682631 \par }{\fs24\insrsid1930952 \par }{\fs24\insrsid5985546 Let us start by understanding that before you can \'93win hearts and minds\'94 you have to build understanding, respect, and basic programs to establish order and to build the society and economy \endash then the hearts and minds may well follow. The object of counterinsurgency is to avoiding creating new enemies by positive society-building actions, rather than coining enemies through blunt military actions.}{\fs24\insrsid3547010 We are also nearing Iraq\rquote s January elections which will select their Constitutional Convention and a representative parliament to complete the interim governing process. Those elections may spark violence in the short run but will satisfy some insurrectionists and potential recruits; and as we have seen, Afghanistan\rquote s election was wildly successful.}{ \fs24\insrsid5985546 \par \par }{\fs24\insrsid3547010 Perhaps the best political expression of what we need to keep in mind is Steve Forbes}{\fs24\insrsid7429589 \rquote }{\fs24\insrsid3547010 campaign mantra of \'93Hope, Growth and Opportunity\'94 from his unsuccessful 1996 campaign. That\rquote s the core of our counter-message and our developmental activities. \par \par We are, after much }{\fs24\insrsid7429589 stumbling, }{\fs24\insrsid3547010 preparatory dithering and bureaucratic log rolling, soon getting to a take-off point where much greater numbers of young Iraqis can be put back to productive work, aiming to take fuel from the fires of insurrection and terrorism. But we should also be planning a vast expansion of educational and vocational training opportunities, to build a greater sense of immediate career opportunity}{\fs24\insrsid7429589 in the networked information age}{\fs24\insrsid3547010 . }{\fs24\insrsid7429589 Adapting}{ \fs24\insrsid3547010 our community college model of market-skills oriented education and fitting it to Iraq\rquote s culture would be an excellent means of taking further fuel from the fires and this can be effected in as little as one year to convert an existing academy and training its faculty, delivering developed curricula \'93over the wire\'94 from our own sc hools here. \par }{\fs24\insrsid3890162 \par In the final essence, Al Qaeda has nothing material to offer }{\fs24\insrsid2435039 the Islamic community, }{\fs24\insrsid3890162 but will continue to exploit discontent in the Muslim world. A nd the US and our allied governments have something very concrete to offer, in this increasingly internet}{\fs24\insrsid4590659 }{\fs24\insrsid3890162 driven world of expanding commerce and trade. The majority of Muslim states are making rapid progress on education and commercial development and one- by-one make themselves progressively more stable and less vulnerable to Islamic Terrorism. SIRIUS does not foresee the collapse of any of these governments, though some will hit bumps along the internet highway.}{\fs24\insrsid3890642 It remains for us to better formulate and communicate our \'93better offer\'94 message of hope, growth and opportunity and to better implement our programs to achieve those aims.}{\fs24\insrsid3890162 \par }{\fs24\insrsid3547010 \par }{\b\fs24\insrsid1523923\charrsid1523923 PS: A Last Useful Insight into Crowds}{\fs24\insrsid1523923 :}{\fs24\insrsid5973714 \par }\pard \ql \li720\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin720\itap0\pararsid1523923 {\fs24\insrsid1523923 \par }\pard \ql \li720\ri0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin720\itap0\pararsid1523923 {\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid1523923 }{\i\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid1523923\charrsid1523923 Crowds are implicit in armies. Inside every army is a crowd struggling to get out, and \par the strongest fear with which every commander lives - stronger than his fear of defeat or even of mutiny - is that of his army reverting to a crowd through some error of his making. For a crowd is the antithesis of an army, a human assembly animated not by discipline but by mood, by the play of inconstant and potentially infectious emotion which, if it spreads, is fatal to an army's subordination. Hence it is that the bitterest of military insults contain the accusations of crowdlike conduct -rabbl e, rif-raff, scum... \par \par Many armies begin as crowds, like Lincoln's militia of `ninety-day volunteers' or the British `New Armies' of 1914, and the transformation of such a crowd into an army is in itself enough to win a soldier a lasting title to fame.}{ \fs24\cgrid0\insrsid1523923 \par - John Keegan, }{\i\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid1523923 The Face of Battle}{\fs24\cgrid0\insrsid1523923 , 1974; pp. 173-74 \par }\pard \ql \li0\ri0\sl240\slmult0\nowidctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faroman\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid15419527 {\fs24\insrsid1523923 \par \par }{\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 \'a9 Copyright 200}{\fs24\insrsid15419527 4}{\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 by Benjamin C. Works - SIRIUS\tab \tab }{\field\flddirty{\*\fldinst {\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 HYPERLINK http://www.siri-us.com }{\fs24\insrsid13840805\charrsid4804488 {\*\datafield 00d0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b0200000017000000100000007700770077002e0073006900720069002d00750073002e0063006f006d000000e0c9ea79f9bace118c8200aa004ba90b3000000068007400740070003a002f002f007700770077002e0073006900720069002d00750073002e0063006f006d002f00 0000802400}}}{\fldrslt {\cs15\fs24\ul\cf2\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 www.siri-us.com}}}{\fs24\insrsid15419527\charrsid4804488 \par Recipients of this report may re-post it, in whole or in part, to Internet web sites and address lists, so long as the copyright notice is included, and "for fair use only." \par }}