Subject: SIT-01-09-17; Bulletin; Taliban-Pakistan Update Date: 9/17/01 9:51 AM Received: 9/17/01 10:09 AM From: ben works, BenWorks@aol.com To: ben works, BenWorks@aol.com SIRIUS: The Strategic Issues Research Institute Benjamin C. Works, Executive Director 1515 Jeff Davis Hwy #408 * Arlington, VA 22202 703 415-1191; www.siri-us.com; E-mail: Benworks@AOL.Com --Speak the Truth and Shame the Devil-- Strategic Issues Today To Unsubscribe, send a terse e-message to benworks@aol.com September 17, 2001 Bulletin: Taliban & Pakistan; US Troops on Alert There is considerable activity and rumor this morning, in the wake of the meeting between the Pakistani and Afghan foreign ministers. Most important are unconfirmed reports that Taliban is moving 20,000 warriors towards the Pakistani border, in an attempt to launch a pre-emptive invasion of Pakistan, hoping also to stir up civil war or communal violence within the larger state's 150 million people. This possibility comes with the fact that Afghanistan has a small supply of Scud-B missiles and short-range FROG missiles. Taliban could attempt to fire these missiles into Pakistan, and there are reports that Taliban is moving these missiles around. The Pentagon has told David Martin of CBS that they are not seeing these mobilizations --not yet. But the prospect is realistic and Taliban has threatened to invade Pakistan. I also checked with an Aviation Industry consultant about Air Afghan: it has four Boeing 727 jets (two are cargo), a Russian Tupelov airliner and an older 747-300. Obviously, these 6 aircraft are potential suicide bombs that could be launched against Pakistan's capital, or a vital fixed military installation. In Islamabad, there is talk emanating from the international diplomatic community that the US-led alliance will seek to restore King Zahir Shah to the Throne of Afghanistan. The kingdom's convulsions began in 1974, when Zahir's brother deposed him and turned the country towards communism. Restoration was under consideration in 1993, but then Taliban launched its bid for power and succeeded. There are pro-Taliban demonstrations in Pakistan being shown on cable news channels, but SIRIUS observes that these are small crowds, in the dozens or hundreds, not massive outpourings. Right on cue, the Chechen rebels, who are aligned with Osama and the KLA, have launched a coordinated attack against Russian forces in the rebel province. A military helicopter was shot down in Grozny and they attacked a military headquarters in Gudernes, the second largest city. US Forces on Standby: The Army has warned four of its ten divisions so that they can prepare for rapid deployment: the 82nd Airborne, the 101st Airmobile, the 10th Mountain and the 3rd Infantry (which is a heavy armor unit with M-1A1Abrams tanks and M-2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles). As standard procedure, the 82nd Airborne Division has one of its three brigades on 96-hour standby. Given the situation in Pakistan, the Army will also need to deploy one or more of its Patriot missile batteries to Islamabad to help with defense against missiles and kamikaze airliners. It is also reported this morning that the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier and task force have shut down their internet communications. The Vinson arrived in the Arabian Gulf at the end of August and should be moving towards the Pakistani coast, where its 48 combat aircraft can assist in Pakistan's defense. It is also noteworthy that the US 1st Infantry Division ("The Big Red One") has a reinforced battalion task force on a training exercise in Kuwait. That can be beefed up on short notice, should Saddam threaten his neighbors again. SIRIUS has also learned that the British armed forces are re-activating their standby air force facilities in Bahrain, an important island emirate in the Arabian Gulf where the US Central Command maintains its forward headquarters. A formatted report may be viewed at: http://www.siri-us.com/issues.html © Copyright 2001 by Benjamin C. Works - SIRIUS www.siri-us.com Recipients of this report may re-post it, in whole or in part, to Internet web sites and address lists, so long as the copyright notice is included, and "for fair use only."