SIT-REP 2-19; Friday February 19, 1999

In This Issue: Kosovo -- Deadlines and Destiny

We are approximately 24-hours shy of a NATO deadline with Mr. Slobodan Milosevic's regime. Kosovo's many ethnic communities and Yugoslavia's people are about to find out what their destiny is to be. Right now, Yugoslavia is being shown a pretty big stick, but only a tiny carrot --probable easing of some sanctions, but only in a step-by-step manner. I have not yet seen a real package of positive incentives that Serbs and other Yugoslavs could safely view as an invitation to rejoin Europe.

In December it was Monica Lewinsky and bombing Baghdad; now it is February and Mr. Clinton threatens Belgrade even as there is the newly emerging scandal about Clinton's alleged 1978 rape of Arkansas nurse Juanita Broaddrick, as reported in today's Wall Street Journal and on FoxNews Cable TV. Shall we revisit "wag the dog?"

By the way, since mid-December, US and British jets have been bombing targets in Iraq --more than two months, now. Nobody seems to have recognized that such frequency of action means we have a low-level "war" going on with Iraq. What do we do next? Remember that the US has bombed Iraq only when Saddam wanted it to. On FoxNews today, another Iraq skirmish is being reported immediately after the latest updates on the Belgrade showdown. Is Clinton to have a "two front war?"

If sustained bombing doesn't change Saddam's behavior, what will we get if we start to bomb Yugoslavia's air defenses? Let me stress one important point. As with Saddam, the US will only bomb Yugoslavia if Mr. Milosevic wants Mr. Clinton to bomb. That will be tragic for all concerned except Slobodan and the KLA. I hope we are watching a high-stakes bluff --political theater-- but Western diplomacy has been badly handled in all of this and the US has too easily adopted wildly exaggerated propaganda "truths" as the basis for this threatened showdown. Good policy outcomes don't come out of bad factual foundations.

Now, Mr. Milosevic's regime has trumped the US already by accepting the "10 Principles" but objects to the bluntly shaped NATO force the US has proposed to station in Kosovo. Milosevic has already accepted the cadre of diplomatic observers of the Kosovo Diplomatic Observer Mission (KDOM), and the 2000 unarmed police observers of the Kosovo Verification Mission (KVM), as well as foreign forensic experts and a legion of reporters and cameramen.

Given the ruthless behavior of the Kosovo Liberation Army and its record of killing Albanians, Serbs, Gypsies and others, the real problem remains one of credible law and order, not one of ethnic cleansing. Kosovo needs a credible police force, not a military occupation. Given the criminal activity of the KLA, the sort of troops NATO should be proposing to send would best be primarily Military Police (MP) battalions, with a couple of maneuver battalions to stare down the KLA and for border security (an airmobile battalion and an armored infantry battalion or two). Instead we are proposing to send in a force that is infantry-heavy and light on MPs. To expend the costs of unloading a Marine Expeditionary Unit to move more than 100 miles inland only makes sense in developing a foreign port to support the occupation. It is the most expensive option.

This is dumb for the US to maneuver itself into this position --hostage to Milosevic's desire to maintain power by the threat of bombing-- by abandoning other options --more sanctions, etc.-- prematurely. But here we are. I learned a useful phrase in Serb, "sui su yeboni" -we're all screwed. If bombs drop, I fear, everybody will wind up getting screwed.

As to the matter of "massacres" and "slaughter," it all depends on what your definition of those words is. Mr. Clinton himself has shown a propensity for fluid definitions; mine are more rigorous. Consider what can happen in the Bronx. If four cops can fire 41 rounds at a poor African in the Bronx, I would be reserved about characterizing other cops' alleged excesses when actually being fired upon by KLA gunmen with AK-47s. I have seen police operations against armed KLA strongholds and these have generated deaths of women and children in the crossfire, but there have been plenty of people evacuated safely and plenty of live KLA prisoners in Yugoslav jails. Still, the observation that it is time to stop the fighting is also correct.For those who missed this clip yesterday, a reprint from The New York Times, Monday, July 12, 1982

Exodus of Serbians Stirs Province in Yugoslavia

"Serbs .... have... been harassed by Albanians and have packed up and left the region.

"The [Albanian] nationalists have a two-point platform, ...first to establish what they call an ethnically clean Albanian republic and then the merger with Albania to form a greater Albania. "

"Some 57,000 Serbs have left Kosovo in the last decade... The exodus of Serbs is admittedly one of the main problems... in Kosovo..." --end clip--

Here are statistics on killings in Kosovo compiled by Stephanie Neale Niketic of Newburyport, MA:

"These are from the Serbian Ministry of the Interior (www.mup.sr.gov.yu). They have more on their site, this is my selection/summary:

STATS FROM JANUARY 1, 1991 TO FEBRUARY 7, 1999

People Killed in Terrorist Attacks in Kosovo

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1991-97 1998 1999 TOTAL

Police 13 115 7 135

Albanian Civilians 17 77 30 124

Other Civilians* 9 96 10 115

TOTAL 39 288 47 374

*Including Serbian

Civilians Injured in Terrorist Attacks in Kosovo

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Entire period

(1991-02.07.99)

Gravely 101

Lightly 125

TOTAL 226

Civilians Kidnapped

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1998-1999

Serbs/Montenegrins 179

Albanians 104

Gypsies 14

Other Nationalities 6

Foreign Citizens 1

TOTAL 304

Of these, 125 have escaped or been released. Remaining number are dead or "destiny unknown."

* * * *

That is why I advocate sending MPs, not tankers and grunts.

IF NATO Bombs:

The US has ordered 51 additional aircraft to Europe including 12 F-117A stealth fighters, 10 radar hunting EA-6B Prowlers (from Whidby Island, WA) and has apparently ordered an additional 6 B-52 cruise-missile launchers to Britain. The Navy, we are informed, has 50 Tomahawks ready to strike in a first round. Bombing is not expected immediately, but by Monday or Tuesday it will be highly likely.

This is the same force package used in Desert Fox and the ongoing skirmishes in Iraq's No Fly Zone. NATO will be attacking Yugoslavia's national air defense system which includes vital elements of its telephone system, and then its tactical missile batteries. So what if Mr. Milosevic not only refuses to submit before bombs, but, like Saddam, decides to force NATO to extend the bombing?

Why would Mr. Milosevic refuse to capitulate and accept bombs? I would guess that he wants to lose Kosovo and its Albanian population in order to prevent a growing pro-Democracy opposition that could unseat him by gaining control of the Serbian State and national Yugoslav Parliaments. That is the reason that would make sense.

But this would lead to the prospect of the fifth general Balkan war of the century; so long Macedonia. The Albanians will have won.

I, of course, will revert to my role as a military analyst and will explain the military details of any operations as fairly as I can. I will not endorse this campaign and will deeply regret this mistake. I hope Serbs will guard their honor and will pray for the good people of Kosovo and Yugoslavia.

© Copyright 1999 by Benjamin C. Works -SIRIUS www.siri-us.com