SIT 2-17; Wednesday, February 17, 1998

In This Issue: Kosovo --Wag The Dog; Everybody's Doin' It!

To my readers; At the SIRIUS website, in the "Background Issues" section, you will now find four archives of articles bearing on aspects of the Kosovo crisis: KLA-Drugs, KLA-Osama, KLA-Women and KLA-Racak. These are intended for those interested in exploring the details further, or for researchers seeking documentation. I have tried to be fair in the inclusions, given my own archive files were not in great shape and given I have lost or deleted many reports from 1998 into the first of the year. Contributions to these archives will be greatly appreciated.

If the scheduling holds, The Washington Times plans to publish an op-Ed essay of mine regarding the KLA, heroin and the issue of sovereignty, in its Thursday edition.

On Monday, I attended a special service at St. Sava Serbian Orthodox Cathedral in New York, where Bishop Artemije and Father Sava of Decani Monastery were present. Afterwards, I stayed for coffee and a vigorous question and answer session strongly resembling our New England Town Meetings. It was virtually entirely in Serb, and I only know a few non-Latinate words and naughty phrases, but thanks to Zorka Milic and a few others, I got the important nuanced parts, while I could clearly understand the passions at play -they need no translation.

As to the Kosovo negotiations, now underway at Rambouillet, France, that is the central focus of today's report, and I have interesting evidence that can give some reason for my readers to view that political theater with mild skepticism --"cautious pessimism." But those talks are set against the background of activities in other cities and countries.

In Nairobi: Abdullah Ocalan went to the wrong city and, further considering this "snatch operation," I have to wonder who all cooperated to grab the Kurdish-Marxist terrorist chieftan. This is just a hunch, but did Israel's experts help their Turkish ally with other cooperation at various points from Greece, Kenya and the CIA? Let us see how the story leaks out.

In Baghdad, Saddam's air defenses have been active for the last three days of the Senate drama, after taking a week off around the death of King Hussein of Jordan. Clearly, Iraq is precipitating air-ground skirmishes for dramatic effect as the US concerns itself with the intense diplomatic effort to resolve the Kosovo crisis, with the dynastic succession in Jordan (where Palestinians have been sympathetic to Iraq's "plight") and to that Senate trial. On Sunday, as the skirmishes continued, Saddam directly threatened the Saudi and Kuwaiti airbases supporting USAF-RAF patrol flights, indicating he had weapons that could directly attack these bases. Also on Monday as skirmishes reportedly continued in both "No Fly Zones," Saddam's deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz officially visited Turkey, seeking to exploit political dissatisfactions there. Clearly, Saddam ordered up the skirmishes as window dressing for that visit, stressing that there were new civilian casualties from the US responses in the Souther zone.

Saddam cannot realistically hope to hit Turkish, Saudi and Kuwaiti bases --"the dens of evil"-- with conventional forces or weapons, but he could try with terror weapons. I know Saddam has agents in Bedouin camps outside these bases: it has been reported that there is substantial cellular phone traffic between these camps and Baghdad whenever US or British aircraft take off on their patrols.

My friend, Aart Brouwer, foreign editor of "Der Groene Amsterdammer," has been teasing me to get back to Saddam and yesterday, I got thinking about a story that Osama is on his way to Baghdad from Afghanistan. Then, looking at the record of air-ground skirmishes in the No Fly Zones since December 26^th, I have to accept that the US and Britain are fighting an extended second low-level shooting war that we in the US have not yet accepted we are engaged in. It demonstrates again that airpower alone is insufficient to deter a determined enemy. --More on this soon.

In Belgrade, On Friday Feb 5, Mr. Milosevic took the curious step of "confiscating" a pharmaceutical plant away from ICN Pharmaceuticals, which is headed by Milan Panic, a Serb immigrant and American citizen. Per Bloomberg News (Feb. 7), there is some very dicey business in this:

"The Belgrade government on Friday claimed control of ICN Yugoslavia after suddenly disclosing that ICN Pharmaceuticals of the U.S. only owns 35 percent of the unit -- rather than the 75 percent that the Costa Mesa, California-based company believes it purchased in 1991."

ICN is owed $172 million for drugs supplied to the Yugoslav government in the last year and suspended sales to the government, while preparing to write off that debt at the cost of its shareholders world-wide. Mr. Milosevic chose this moment, concurrent with the Rambouillet talks, to get even with Milan Panic for supporting pro-Democracy political opposition groups. During the week, ICN's 2000 employees vigorously protested the seizure and the US is supporting Mr. Panic's attempt to reclaim control.

In essence, Mr. Milosevic's action was designed to appeal to militant nationalists and socialist-communists in his country for "beggaring" a wealthy Californian. Atop of being a clear "wag the dog" gambit, the action is a cynical example of "populist" politics pandering to baser selfish instincts within the electorate. Lastly, the $172 million has been squandered to sustain a regime that is little more than a Mafia, itself.

Mr. Milosevic continues to quibble over the presence of a NATO occupation force in Kosovo, as a matter of sovereignty, but has otherwise accepted the peace package. I think his arguing is simply theater for Serb consumption and that at the last minute, he will accept what may turn out to be a not-too-bad package.

In Racak, Kosovo, some 10,000 Albanians showed up for the funeral of 40 "martyrs" to the KLA insurrection, and, of course, Willam Walker showed up, heart-on-sleeve, to express solidarity. His allegations of a deliberate massacre remain unsubstantiated, much less proven. Still, the KLA finds little encouragement for the continuation of its war and demonstrates no military competence or military cohesion above the platoon level. A number of grenades have been thrown into non-KLA cafes and a number of corpses of non-KLA victims have been found in recent days. The KLA continues its terror campaign even as the US and its partners in the "Contact Group" try to press Serbia and the Kosovo Albanians to reach an agreement.

Elsewhere in Kosovo, KLA terror continues to worsen along the lines of the old IRA's actions; an 11-pound bomb went off during shopping hours in Urosevac at the weekend, damaging 20 shops and injuring Serbs and Albanians alike. Yugoslavia and Serbia have accepted the "10 Principles" and the KLA clearly does not want to; they know it is not a good deal at all for their planned "Greater Albania" or for the Heroin Mafia.

In Rambouillet --"The CNN Factor"

I mentioned that I have reason to feel "cautiously pessimistic." I think a deal will be reached that will be better for non-Albanian Muslims than for those who support Rugova, the KLA and independence. That is why today, two KLA spokesmen in England and Germany vowed to continue the fight for independence.

Here are a couple of further clues indicating there is not any intention on the part of the "Contact Group" to permit Albanian secessionism now or three years from now: First an excerpt from a Reuters dispatch indicating a healthy soupçon of diplomatic cynicism:

Analysis-West Has Little Leverage Over Kosovo Guerrillas

Reuters 14-FEB-99 ·A U.S. official said on Saturday in France that if ethnic Albanians dragged their feet they would be told the international community is no longer interested in their problem. That was code for warning them not to expect the West to intervene to save them from Serbian security forces again.

Asked how Western leaders could sustain such a position in the face of television pictures of slaughtered civilians, one senior American official said last month:

"We'll just ignore them (the pictures). The 'CNN factor' is over-rated. It's only when we respond to the pictures that there's a consequence to them. We create the CNN factor, not CNN or the public or the warring parties."

The official spoke on January 12. Three days later 45 ethnic Albanians were shot dead in the village of Racak in what was immediately described by the ranking international diplomat in Kosovo·

Here is another clue; "the 10 Principles" themselves. On February 11, the Yugoslav delegation, comprising 5 Serbs and 8 members of other ethnic communities within Yugoslavia and Kosovo (but also members of the Milosevic political circle), trumped the Contact Group by physically signing the statement of Ten Principles which the Contact Group proposed as the basis for talks. These principles guarantee participative democracy in Kosovo, but within the Constitutional framework of Yugoslavia --a return to something like the old autonomy, but balanced to ensure rights of other ethnic minorities. The principles do not allow for a secession plebiscite or for a process leading to eventual independence, which is what Rugova's urban politicians and the KLA's rural gangsters really want.

Hence, the Contact Group had a dilemma; the Serbs have agreed to everything but the need for a NATO occupation force, while by Sunday the 14^th,the Albanians had agreed to nothing. The standoff continues and will to the last possible moment, this coming weekend.

It is important for the reader to see what these 10 principles are, as they have not been widely published in the Western Press. Here they are, verbatim, from the Yugoslav declaration:

Rambouillet, February 11, 1999

STATEMENT OF THE DELEGATION DESIGNATED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA, AT THE MEETING IN RAMBOUILLET

The Delegation designated by the Government of the Republic of Serbia, at the meeting in Ramouillet, at the suggestion of the Co-Chairman of the Meeting, Mr. Robin Cook, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, makes the following

S T A T E M E N T

1. The Delegation accept€Ç±½ÂšÀ¤Ô_ªª€›Wÿõÿñ„÷€¢=on accepts the following general elements set by the Contact Group as a basis for finding a political solution for self-government in Kosovo and Metohija:

- Necessity of immediate end of violence and respect of cease-fire;

- Peaceful solution through dialogue;

- Interim agreement; a mechanism for a final settlement after an interim period of three years;

- No unilateral change of interim status;

- Sovereignty and territorial integrity of the FRY and its neighbouring countries;ll national communities (preservation of identity, language and education; special protection for their religious institutions);

- Free and fair elections in Kosovo (municipal and Kosovo-wide) under supervision of the OSCE;

- Neither party shall prosecute anyone for crimes related to the Kosovo conflict (exceptions: crimes against humanity, war crimes and other serious violations of international law);

- Amnesty and release of political prisoners;

- International involvement and full co-operation by the parties on implementation.

2. Convinced that it will contribute to the successful work of the Meeting, the Delegation calls upon the Delegation of the Kosmet Albanians to sign also the above elements.

Members of the Yugoslav Delegation: Prof. Dr. Ratko Markovic (Serb), Nikola Sainovic, M.Sc. (Serb), Prof. Dr. Vladan Kutlesic (Serb), Prof. Dr. Vladimir Stambuk (Serb), Zejnelabidin Kurejs, Ibro Vait, Refik Senadovic (possibly Serb, but first name indicates a Gorani or Roma ), Ljuan Koka, Sokolj Cuse, Guljbehar Sabovic, Faik Jasari

My Analysis:

I keep an eye on the Russians, Belgrade's advocate in the Contact Group. If they agree, as they do reluctantly over time, the deal is improving in Belgrade's favor. The Russians even agree that some outside force should be posted in Kosovo for a few years.

Mr. Milosevic did offer one alternative that is mostly a red herring; he would accept a NATO force if Yugoslavia is admitted into NATO, Belgrade leaked the other day. If Albanians are forced to reintegrate into Yugoslavia, their parliamentary blocs in the Serb and Yugoslav parliaments will be anti-Milosevic blocs that could work with other democratic parliamentarians to ultimately unseat the Milosevic regime; but that will not happen overnight. This is how the Turkish minority has played king-maker in Bulgaria, brokering between the Bulgar Left and Right.

Other analysts have their reasons to like or dislike the NATO proposal to occupy Kosovo for three years of the "Interim Period." My analysis is predicated entirely on the assumption that I have interpreted the "10 Principles" correctly --readers know I do not advocate any possibility of allowing the Gegs to ethnically cleanse others out of Kosovo and will not advocate secession now or ever.

I do believe that since the Yugoslav police forces have been "heavy-handed" at times when attacking KLA strongholds, it is better that in a cooling off period some outside armed assistance is present to back up the efforts of the OSCE Kosovo Verification Mission (KVM) and Diplomatic Observer Mission (KDOM) in keeping order. This may also help ensure a more accurate census profiling all the non-Albanian communities

Since the Western States did encourage so much anti-Serb propaganda and since Western politicians and activists did so much to encourage Albanian ambitions at independence, let the Western powers pay and let them police the KLA and the Heroin Mafia, with Interpol operating with Yugoslavia's police under protective cover of NATO.

Let the KLA kill just one US or French soldier and see what happens then.

In my next report I will analyze what sort of interim occupying force might work out and what is wrong, in my view, with the current NATO proposal.

© Copyright 1999 by Benjamin C. Works - SIRIUS www.siri-us.com