Benjamin C. Works, Executive Director

--Speak the Truth and Shame the Devil--

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SIT REP 1-6-99; Weds. Jan. 6, 1999

- William Ralph Inge (1860-1954), Dean of St. Paul's Cathedral, London

Saddam cannot sit still, nor sleep, in the same place two nights running. The ongoing Iraqi crisis is bigger than we were led to think; and it is continuing. It seem there was a lot more going on during and since Operation Desert Fox than most of us knew, even those of us "really, really" paying attention. You had to have access to the Arab Press and other sources to know what was actually going on. But after all, it has been Christmas, New Years, Ramadan and the Bowl games. A lot of distractions.

Fortunately, SIRIUS has sources and resources in the military-retiree communities, in Texas and Amsterdam, probing and prodding. Stratfor, a Texas think tank, and Der Groene Amsterdamer's foreign editor provided a lot of the missing elements. For those with the time, surf to www.stratfor.com for detailed reports on the failed coup attempt dated Dec. 22, Jan. 5 and Jan. 6^th.

It turns out that a number of commanders in the Iraqi 3^rd Corps, situated around Basra, attempted to raise a military rebellion under cover of the missiles and jets of Operation Desert Fox. Credible reports indicate that this mutiny was prearranged and coordinated by operatives of Arab intelligence services and was deliberately timed in conjunction with US-UK air operations, not just coincidental. This means that Desert Fox was supposed to start when the coup was ready and would have sought to keep the Republican Guard from smothering the coup as it was just beginning to raise support. Those reinforcing planes that were to arrive at the weekend of Dec. 19-20^th weren't in theater soon enough to help when Saddam forced the coup to begin early, on the 17^th.

A mere few hours before the bombing began, Saddam rearranged his command structure, assigned top henchmen as commanders of four regional commands and redeployed elements of the Republican Guard to face the threat from the south. This appears to have forced the coup plotters to move prematurely and precipitated the rush job on launching Desert Fox.

At the same time, Irani-backed Shiites of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) initiated guerilla operations and sabotage, targeting radio-tv transmitters among other targets. Apparently fighting broke out even in southern Shiite neighborhoods of Baghdad. A few hints of irregular activities by Saddam's special guards groups did come out on the radio, or in off-air background conversations, but the real story was down in Basra, Karbala and other towns.

Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the US, Kuwait and others are tired and impatient with Saddam and it looks like the covert operations were a lot better developed than I suspected when Mr. Clinton resumed speculation about CIA operations in November.

But "Loose lips sink ships." There is too much indiscipline in Washington and elsewhere, too much leakage --remember that Monica Lewinsky had top security clearances while working at the Pentagon and how easily she got taped by a sympathetic "operative." Saddam only has to watch the TV Press Corps line up on the Ministry of Information to know they've been tipped by somebody in the loop that ordnance is on the way. Saddam has his own expert intelligence agents who have even penetrated the UN headquarters in New York, as well as most major anti-regime Iraqi groups. So he somehow found out just in time.

Having thought about this failure, it is clear the US does not want to talk about it, as it is just one more situational failure in an ongoing and very serious multinational effort to subvert Saddam's regime --the US and others are still trying to trigger another uprising. Hence, Gen Zinni, from the 20^th through 24^th of December made several published allusions to Saddam's ongoing internal security problems, for example:

Wed, 23 Dec 1998 6:54:14 PST

From: (AP / JOHN DIAMOND, Associated Press Writer)

ABOARD THE USS ENTERPRISE (AP) -- Evidence collected by U.S. intelligence indicates that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was more concerned about internal threats to his regime than about the damage he faced last week from impending air strikes, the commander of U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf said today. The repositioning of Iraqi ground forces and last-minute shifts in their commanding officers indicated the Iraqi leader wanted to make sure the U.S. and British air attack did not spark a revolt in the ranks, said Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, head of the U.S. Central Command. Zinni, visiting this desert base with Defense Secretary William Cohen, described the separation of Iraq's ground forces into four sectors under the command of ruthless officers loyal to Saddam.

``That decentralization was done so they insured they had control,'' Zinni said. ``I think it was done more for internal reasons and internal military problems they thought they might have than for any military preparations they had for us.'' --End Quote

But on the face of the failure, Saddam is doing his best, by leaking to the Arab press in London, to make this fresh failure, on a par with John Deutsch's August 1996 fiasco in the Kurdish capital of Erbil, where Saddam rolled over the town and wiped out a CIA operation. That was a repeat of Kennedy's "Bay of Pigs" fiasco. This one wasn't much better, but those are the risks of covert operations --too many cooks, both plotters and foreign operative collaborators. It is the ongoing discussion in the Arab press which, I think, forced Jamie Rubin at the State Department, to confirm hundreds of executions and taking of 2000 hostages in southern Iraq, going back to the mid-November assassination attempt on Izzat Ibrahim, Saddam's top Shiite deputy and now in command of the Northern regional military command. That was almost certainly a SCIRI assassination operation backed by Iran.

As part of that December 16^th reorganization of the military, Saddam retained direct command and control of his Air Forces and air defense batteries, missiles and artillery. On Tuesday, Saddam was really trying hard to down an American plane. When the initial vague reports of mid-morning got sorted out, it became clear that eight separate incidents occurred. Eight times, pairs of Iraqi aircraft penetrated the zone and turned around when chased by American Air Force and Navy Jets.

Twice, Americans fired air-to-air missiles at long range, knowing the Iraqis were decoys sent to lure the Americans over camouflaged missile batteries waiting in ambush in a tactical arrangement known as a "Kill Box.". In such a trap, 3 or more batteries are sited a few miles apart in order to catch aircraft in a crossfire -- where missiles "from all angles" can overcome the decoys fighters carry. Civilians around DC have made quite a fuss as to why our expensive missiles didn't work; our more expensive aircraft and pilots are coming back, rather than giving Saddam a major propaganda coup. In the no fly zones our military is husbanding its strength, patiently awaiting its next opportunity.

Since, like American jets, Iraqi Migs and Mirages have aluminum chaff foil (tinsel) dispensers to confuse radar-guided missiles, and flare decoys to divert heat-seeking missiles, it is not surprising that the US missiles did not down a Mig at long ranges, though a Mig-23 apparently ran out of fuel and crashed. The US suspects the pilots are given minimum fuel loads to prevent fresh defections to Iran or Saudi.

About Saddam's semi-fixed SA-3 and mobile SA-6 batteries, of which he may have over 150 operational, including 60 SA-6 batteries in the Southern No Fly Zone. Two important details are worth noting. Both have an electro-optical guidance system backing up their radar guidance. This is, in essence, an infrared TV camera and ground crews can attempt to guide the missile into a careless aircraft. These systems have been upgraded by Russia since Desert Storm, as have the tactics and other electronics.

According to Aviation Week Magazine, Saddam's SA-2 and SA-3 missiles and his SAM radars are maintained at the Taji missile maintenance facility. In Desert Fox, that complex was effectively destroyed, complicating support for Saddam's air defenses in the short run.

I think Saddam has clearly crossed the line in calling on Islamic radicals to rise up against the Saudis, Egypt and other governments, but then, those governments appear to be clearly involved in covert operations against Saddam --tit for tat. Still, in joining voices with Osama bin Laden, the US can argue that Saddam has crossed the line and poses a clear and present danger to the region.

I no longer think anybody in the neighborhood wants to keep Saddam around as the convenient whipping boy-villain, they want him gone. But according to my sources with an ear inside the Saudi Royals and other key players, Clinton is viewed as weak and faint hearted about a proper military operation, and enmired in his other scandals. Many wish he were gone, too.

In this ongoing war of nerves, I think the US and its friends want to provoke a clear "casus belli" if they cannot spark a miracle Iraqi army mutiny. For now, with respect to Ramadan, the US has contented itself with general threats from Mme Albright, General Hugh Shelton and others, but SIRIUS will be watching for our escalating rhetoric as Ramadan comes to a close on the 17-18^th, just before the State of the Union Speech -"SOTUS." Meanwhile, Saddam is trying to push this crisis into the Senate Impeachment hearings, which start tomorrow.

So Saddam is pushing back as best he can, finding new reasons for objecting to US and British relief workers and now accusing all of UNSCOM as being a front for US CIA and NSA electronic signals espionage --today's charge. It has been clear for years that Saddam's agents had hopelessly compromised UNSCOM and other offices both in Baghdad and New York. And one only has to read one UNSCOM site report, available in stacks at the UN, to know that the CIA doesn't have to do anything more that collect copies of these detailed surveys in order to have what it needs.

In summary, this is an ongoing crises that is open-ended as to outcome. It is not going to go away easily and might --just might-- end with Saddam's removal from this life. There are a lot of people in power around the planet who want to see Saddam gone, but there are also a lot who would richly love to see Mr. Clinton take a fatal tumble.

"It is," as I like to say, "a news-rich environment."

© 1998 by Benjamin C. Works-SIRIUS www.siri-us.com

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