Benjamin C. Works, Executive Director

--Speak the Truth and Shame the Devil--

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SIT-REP 1-27; Wednesday, January 27, 1999

In the middle of the Senate Impeachment trial here in Washington, matters have taken a decided turn toward military confrontation in both Iraq and Kosovo, leading some, even, to speculate that Belgrade and Baghdad are collaborating. I think it is our Clintonian policies collaborating, by their illogic, against our intended aims and that it is the outlaw Islamic mafia of the Kosovo Liberation Army, rather than Yugoslav Security forces, which is driving that crisis.

In Iraq, Saddam is reacting rationally to the threat of concerted covert operations against him by the neighbors as well as the Clinton CIA. Iraq's parliament today called on the Saudi and Kuwaiti people to rise up and topple their monarchies. There will be more than just talk.

In both cases, the outlaw forces are taking advantage of America's distraction with the Impeachment, seeking to find advantage in that distraction. Naturally, they seek to discredit an incredibly illogical policy, so the leverage timing gives them their best hope. That Mme Albright continues to believe in her own policy, gives the rogues further leverage. And there are many in major capitals who do not mind letting the US administration discredit itself and its "enlightened" agenda.

To be clear, the immediate nature of the twin problems of Kosovo and Iraq are entirely of America's making and it could be very messy for our armed forces and the peoples of several countries. Worst of all, a President Gore would be no more effective than our Mr. Clinton.

Having weighed the continuing flow of reports from Kosovo since last week, I revert to my estimate that William Walker was badly wrong in alleging the massacre of 45 Albanians in Racak on January 15^th. Though last week the Times of London was told that Walker had some further evidence to support his allegation, subsequent review of videotape from the fighting and interim reports from Finnish forensics experts all tend to cast great doubt on Walker's interpretation. In his definition of "massacre," Walker ignored all KLA provocations, then refused to differentiate between combat casualties and "innocent" civilians, then further compounded his error by violating diplomatic norms. Finally, he further obstructed the process of gathering forensic evidence.

It is clear that the KLA had some 17 hours to rearrange evidence between the end of the fight and Mr Walker's theatrical arrival. I do not believe that the KLA necessarily redressed corpses in civilian clothes, but I think that most of the people shooting at the police from the village would have been dressed in their civvies when the police arrived.

Of the 45 victims, some 17-22 (head counts vary) were found in the infamous ditch creating the appearance of a mass killing, but the other 23 or more corpses were scattered around the village. French reporters at the ditch noticed few cartridge cases --one reported not seeing any-- indicating that the victims were probably not shot there.

I could go on, but will not here; there is ample documentation from Le Monde, Le Figaro and Agence France-Presse, plus others. This week we have more odd events including the death of 5 Albanians who were gathering cornstalks as fodder for their animals. The KLA immediately tried to pin this on "Serb" police, but government sources point out that the area is under KLA control and that shell cases around the scene indicate the people were killed at close range, not from a distant armored car alleged by the creative minds of the Albanian propaganda mill. On Monday evening, in a separate incident an Albanian was killed and his son wounded by the KLA in Luka, for collaborating with the authorities by turning in a rifle.

What is odd to me, in this pattern, is that the alleged "Serb" atrocities have alternated with two successful hostage releases brokered by the OSCE observers of the Kosovo Verification Mission (KVM). In one case eight Yugoslav supply troops were exchanged for nine KLA guerrillas --including a 16-year old girl-- caught infiltrating in a large shootup in December. In the other case, 5 older Serb residents were released after a couple of days in KLA hands.

The KLA is out of control and there are no NATO capabilities designed to stop it. On the basis of this, Mme Albright and her minions (Ambassadors Hill, Walker et al) want to bomb Yugoslavia?

I continue to argue that --setting aside negotiating a constitutional pact between Belgrade and Pristina-- this is a straightforward matter of law and order. But the Clinton Administration, by embracing propaganda "truths" instead of the facts on the ground, have bound themselves to preventing the preservation or restoration of legitimate law and order. They have also, in swallowing Albanian propaganda uncritically, further encouraged Ibrahim Rugova's political wing to refuse to negotiate in earnest or good-faith. That is why the problem cannot be resolved and why bombing the cops to protect the robbers makes no sense to anybody outside the Beltway. But then American conservatives have always noted that liberals are soft on crime.

As to a constitutional pact, the nation owes a consistent constitutional framework to all its citizens; in the United States, all 50 states have equal status, and the counties and municipalities of each state have "equal status." All citizens have equal rights at the federal, state and local level. In Yugoslavia, this was how things worked until the competing vultures, Tudjman, Kucan, Izetbegovic and Milosevic, succeeded in dismembering the polity of the nation-state.

In Kosovo, the Albanians want more than equal rights and are arguing that civil and human rights should be defined and endowed to groups, rather than individuals. This is an artful politicians' argument also advanced by Clinton and civil rights activists to justify affirmative action. It is a political argument for advantage, not a constitutional argument for equality before the law.

Yugoslavia argues correctly that no individual rights in Kosovo have been compromised, but that at worst, the control of the political pork barrel was taken away from the province's politicians because of their abuse and because they were discriminating against non-Albanian Muslim and Christian populations, and even against Albanian Catholics.

This is how I would frame policy, on the basis of individual rights and a non-sovereign status for local home rule in Kosovo, where the majority is bound by the constitution to respect individual rights and the communities of minority groups within the jurisdiction. Kosovo in no way merits a sovereignty Connecticut does not enjoy within the US, or Queens County within the state of New York. The remaining question is then whether to treat Kosovo and Metohija as two counties or as a "state" within the nation-state.

Yugoslavia is not at war with, or a threat to its neighbors. The evidence for human rights violations, atrocities or war crimes is all flimsy, suspect and mostly specious propaganda. To attack Yugoslavia and to dismantle it would be the gravest crime against constitutionalism and sovereignty the United States, in its "imperial" enlightenment could accomplish. To empower criminals in the name of humanity, is laughable.

Colonels Harry Summers and David Hackworth have also published loud and intelligent dissenting reports on the question of NATO intervention in Kosovo this week and European allies disagree strongly with Mme Albright's artless attempts to apply blunt power. I will go further into this confrontation and the constitutional politics in my next report.

Militarily, the US widened its "rules of engagement" for pilots responding to threats from Iraqi air defenses in the No-Fly zone. They may now attack air defense infrastructure as well as the guilty batteries themselves. This change was effected in December.

At the same time, Central Command has now verified that Iraq tripled the number of operational surface-to-air missile batteries when they began harassing patrol aircraft the day after Christmas.

There was a nine-day pause in these skirmishes while Ramadan ended and in anticipation of Sunday's Arab League meeting, but the harassment resumed on Saturday and has continued at a much larger scale than before the 9-day quietus.

On Sunday, Iraq learned that the Arabs were uniformly against Saddam's regime and understood that those Arab states contributing to covert actions against the regime would continue those operations. Thus, today, the Iraqi Parliament approved the resolution calling on the people of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to rise up and overthrow their monarchs.

Saddam means to go down swinging, and though the Arabs would prefer a military coup to remove him, they may have to support further bombing and even a second Desert Storm if Saddam can find an effective means of stirring up the masses in other countries.

The policy of the last eight years was to use sanctions to strangle the regime; instead, they starved the powerless, while the regime remained in control. The policy now is to undermine the regime through covert operations; but that takes time and gives Saddam the option of sponsoring operations by Osama bin Laden or others. In a covert campaign the US and its allies deliberately forgo the advantages of their overwhelming conventional military power in exchange for a playing field where they are, at best, of equal strength, and in political fact, at some considerable disadvantage against emotionally-charged Islamic fundamentalists.

This idea of a covert campaign of indeterminate length does not make sense strategically. If we want rid of Saddam, then the most effective way is through a war, unless special operations commandos can infiltrate Iraq, locate Saddam and laser-guide a bomb onto his head.

All I can say, for now, is that I expect this crisis is leading to another round of tactical bombing, like Desert Fox, maybe a bit bigger. To expect more, for now at least, would be to let hope triumph over experience.

© Copyright 1999 by Benjamin C. Works -SIRIUS www.siri-us.com

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