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SIT REP 1-11-99; Monday. Jan. 11, 1999

Inside this Issue- Ending Saddam's Regime? AContinuing Story or End Game?

In previous reports and in on-air interviews over the last few weeks, I have been skeptical about the prospect of CIA-managed covert operations being adequate to toppling the regime of Saddam Hussein. Of and by itself, that would be true.

The pattern, however has changed, going back to November, which is when Mr. Clinton announced the renewed initiative. Beginning with an attempt on the life of Izzat Ibrahim, Saddam's top Shiite henchman, there appears to be a lot of covert and clandestine activity supported not just by the US, but by Syria, Iran, and other Arab neighbors. I have found in the reports of widespread executions at least three different events in November and December of actions attempted against the regime, and even against Saddam himself.

It appears, that when Saddam called for Egyptians, Saudis and Kuwaitis to overthrow their regimes in his "Armed Forces Day" speech early last week, Saddam not only publicly crossed a line, he apparently recognized that his Arab neighbors have come to the conclusion that Saddam is more dangerous to Middle East stability than Iran or Israel.

That became even more apparent on Sunday, when both Saudi Arabia and Egypt called for the Iraqi people to rise up and overthrow Saddam's regime. Further, Saddam and Osama bin Laden have given the appearance of jointly cooperating in fomenting further wanton terror around the world which adds another plausible pretext for striking against his mechanisms of power

Just from the roster of executions we can determine that three or more separate operations have been squashed thus far, by Saddam's internal security apparatus and Republican Guard:

1. An attempt to assassinate Saddam, prior to Dec. 1998, by junior officers in the Republican Guard and others ranging from corporals to majors, said to be executed among 81 people killed before/on Dec. 13^th.
2. Five officers (names were given in the London Arab Press) ranging from the commanding officer, a Brigadier, to Lt Colonel, belonging to 11^th Mechanized Division of the 3^rd Corps, positioned near Basra. These executions occurred around the 18^th to the 20^th.
3. "Hundreds of executions" and 2000 hostages taken in Shiite Southern Iraq, supervised by Quesay Hussein and Gen al-Majid after the mid-November assassination attempt on Saddam's key Shiite Deputy Izzat Ibrahim.

4. Aside from these executions, we have information that in addition to the attempted coup by 3^rd Corps' 11^th Mechanized Division, there was substantial sabotage and attempts to take over TV-Radio transmission stations in Baghdad and the south.

In September, Mme. Albright began to attempt to reconcile the Barzani and Talibani factions of Iraq's rebellious Kurdish minority. Another reconciliatory meeting was being held in the Kurdish Highlands on Jan. 7^th .and it appears to have worked, adding a fresh threat to Saddam, who pulled his Republican Guard troops out of the North to help suppress the Shiite guerilla campaign in the South Kurdish reconciliation is an additional step in trying to erect a united front against Saddam, forcing him to worry about that front again. It was while these two factions were fighting each other over power in August 1996, that Saddam was able to attack Erbil and wipe out CIA-backed operations there.

To make clear how Saddam uses the Republican Guard, they are stationed to the rear of his five army corps, between Baghdad and any potential rebellion from those front line troops. The Army's 1^st and 5^th Corps face the Kurds, 2^nd Corps faces Iran in the center of their border, east of Baghdad, while 3^rd Corps faces Kuwait and 4^th Corps faces the southern Irani border along the Shatt al-Arab.

Saddam had to draw further Republican Guard troops south to beat up the Shiites, now he has to rebalance these Guard divisions after they have suffered some significant damage from the Desert Fox strikes. Problems mount and damage is cumulative, should another set of strikes get prosecuted.

In Desert Fox, each Republican Guard Division's armory, supply dumps, and motor pools were hit. None lost so much as a tenth of their equipment and personnel, but each has fresh problems to contend with. The US also managed to heavily damage the depot which maintains SAM missiles and their battery radars.

Since December 26^th, here have now been five days featuring skirmishes between US-UK aircraft and Iraqi Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) batteries, including a pair of actions today in the Northern No-Fly Zone which protects that renewed Kurdish alliance. Iraq is still actively trying to bag a pilot, but that appears to be an unlikely outcome. I hope such skirmishes continue through this week, which would give the US the provocation it might want to execute a new round of air strikes, seeking to provoke an uprising; but that may or may not happen.

Saddam, as I have already indicated, knows his back is to the wall, and further signals from Arabs, Iran, the US and others indicate the neighbors and alliance will seek to work cooperatively with a reform-minded successor regime based on national "salvation." At any rate, covert operations will continue until there is a chance to strike him again.

What's to Come is Still Unsure:

There is some very interesting dissembling going on in the capitals of the Middle East and some very demure behavior in Washington and at CENTCOM, but it adds up to the major determination that I have already described: Saddam must go.

At the same time, there is not sufficient tactical air power currently in the theater to provide adequate support for a uprising by the Iraqi Army against a Republican Guard still disposed to protect the Hussein regime. So what is to come may be not be the ultimate act in this extended drama, it may be no more than an equally-sized or somewhat bigger "Desert Fox." .But there is evidence that we have entered the "End Game."

Ramadan ends on or about Sunday, Jan. 17^th. Monday is a Federal Holiday here and Tuesday is the scheduled State of the Union Address (SOTUS). Just after that, the State Department has announced, Mme Albright will visit Cairo and Riyadh to discuss Saddam and the Israel-Palestinian peace process with those governments. This is another signal of the new concord regarding curtailing Mr. Hussein's career.

I expect another heavy application of ordnance will be applied to the Republican Guard and other targets sometime later this month or early February. I also expect more Iraqis will die on the ground trying to rise up against Saddam, than may be killed by America's guided missiles; but the US and its friends might just get lucky. But it is difficult to maintain secrecy for a coordinated uprising given the extent to which Saddam's security apparatus has infiltrated and penetrated the many opposition elements and neighboring governments, not to mention his ability to get information out of the UN, Moscow, etc.

A post-Saddam Iraq, if it liberates itself, will be a cheap victory for the neighbors and the US and I can understand why this is the preferred course at this time. It would take 4-5 months for the US to build up another invading army and if Iraq were conquered, an occupying force would have to sit in Iraq for several years, superintending the firm establishment of a constitutional republic or monarchy, bound by respect for the rule of law. If Iraq liberates itself, a successor regime may root out the most wicked of Saddam's cadres and spare the neighbors and the US the costs of war and occupation. A cheap solution, but the more difficult to pull off, since Saddam has smothered every attempt thus far.

We shall see·.

© Copyright 1999 by Benjamin C. Works - SIRIUS www.siri-us.com