SIT-REP 9-22; Wednesday, September 22, 1999

In this Issue: Kosovo; Jeremiad-Yugoslavia; Preliminary on DU; At the UN-"Self- Determination," Taiwan Navy -Spratly Islands

Saturday night I had the pleasure of attending the premiere screening of a film by my friend George Bogdanich "Yugoslavia --The Avoidable War." It made its debut at the New York International Independent Film Festival and won a prize as "Best Social Documentary." In three words, the film is "irrefutable and compelling." The documentation is nearly impeccable and not only rebuts virtually every argument presented against the Serbs with first-person clips from principal players such as Jim Baker and General Lewis MacKenzie, it "deconstructs" the propaganda-making process, while still being, if anything, understated and journalistically conservative. The tape is 2.5 hours and includes comments by my friends David Hackworth and Roger Charles. As soon as further details are in hand, I will let readers know more about this singular effort and how to get a copy.

This report got crowded so I will revisit Colombia, North Korea and Timor in the next issue; due Friday or Saturday, I hope.

Kosovo and Yugoslavia:

Serbs are angry at NATO and the UN over the deal converting Hashim Thaci's terrorists into a "civil defense" Kosovo Protection Corps. Clearly, Thaci beat the UN in those negotiations, completed Tuesday. There are calls already that the answer to this latest outrage should be a Serb-Gypsy-Gorani Kosovo Protection Corps.

Bishop Artemije and Mr. Trajkovic, two voices of reason in Kosovo have resigned from Bernard Kouchner's UN sponsored interim council and have announced that formal defensive steps could be taken in the near future.

To cover Mr. Kouchner's tracks as the Kosovo intervention evolves toward failure and fiasco, the UN viceroy alleged on Tuesday that Serbs are re-infiltrating Kosovo and embarking on a campaign of terror --recycling General Clark's lame accusation that three Serbs killed by the Russians two weeks ago might be a formal "paramilitary." Interestingly, Kouchner was promptly contradicted by soon-to-depart General Mike Jackson, K-For's candid commander. According to a news report from Reuters, "U.N. Warns Of Serbs Plotting To Destabilize Kosovo" (dateline PRISTINA, Sep 22, 1999):

The wires report that officials from President Milosevic's ruling Socialist Party and from the Serbian government have publicly ruled out any forcible return of cops, soldiers or anybody official, saying it would just give NATO an excuse to renew air strikes against Yugoslavia. The Serbs are not dumb enough to act hastily or in an amateurish way. Regarding infiltrators; if they come in, when they come in, their Spetsnaz would be as professional as any commandos and would have sharply focussed missions.

Sermonette and Jeremiad:

??"The harvest is past, the summer is ended, and we are not saved."

?? - Jeremiah 8:20

Autumn is upon us and the humanitarian situations in Yugoslavia and Kosovo are making scant progress. The national electrical grid and urban heating plants remain damaged; water supplies are still uncertain and no aid is being provided, despite the fact that Yugoslavia has adhered to the articles of the cessation of hostilities agreement and UN Resolution 1244. This level of sanctions is brutal vindictiveness designed to afflict, designed to kill the weak and beggar the middle classes.

Genocide is being practiced against Yugoslavia --there, I've affirmed it, and all the facts lead inescapably to that conclusion. There is no peace and logical analysis would conclude that these international actions can only be designed to provoke further war in the Balkans. "There is no peace."

US-formulated policy encourages both street demonstrations in Belgrade, begun today, and the Montenegran demand for Constitutional change --which if rejected this week, gives President Djukanovic an excuse to trigger a war of independence.

Help comes to those who help themselves and though Serbs at home and out here in the "Diaspora" constantly ask who will pay for the reconstruction, the answer is that though some aid may eventually come, people who lie about waiting for relief get very little. Though inflation and unemployment are rife, just now; Yugoslavia could repair its bridges, roads and much of its infrastructure on its own. Activity breeds confidence and more activity. Remember that Hitler delivered Germany from the Great Depression without foreign aid and it was the first western state to emerge. This was not done by building Panzers --that came later. It came from building roads, transport and other projects.

Mr. Milosevic appears to have made a bad choice by not proceeding more vigorously in reconstruction work. It is better to say "ko te yebe" (who would screw you?) to the UN and get on with things than to linger in misery. This is also what George Herbert really meant in his maxim "living well is the best revenge."

Though it is understandable and sometimes good "politics" to play an obstructionist card, I would also suggest that by not moving to clear the Danube channel rapidly unless outsiders pay for the repairs (as low as $10 mil by one estimate), Mr. Milosevic is punishing the wrong interests. Yugoslavia has opened a partial channel re-opening an old canal so that Russian and Ukrainian oil cargoes can pass; but it blocks this route to Romanian and Bulgar transports, thus punishing people rather than their governments. (A detailed article is attached to the website edition of this report). The people of Romania and Bulgaria tend to support reality and the Serbs; though their governments sold themselves to NATO for aid programs. "Belittle" governments, if they are being crass, but keep the people on your side, is the rule. This is not hard to formulate as strategies.

Closing the Danube also tends to punish Germany and others in Europe while some interests in the US may benefit by rerouting some traffic through a new route ("Corridor 8") it wants to open leading through Bulgaria, Montenegro and Albania. That plan assures those states some transit revenues at the expense of their neighbors. Mr. Clinton will only be around for another 16 months and Serbia will need to create conditions that allow the next President to be more favorably disposed to the country, people and government. In general, a shift to unionist politics from divide and rule politics is the only successful way out for Belgrade's politicians.

Orwellian Twist: Tuesday saw the start of ant-Milosevic demonstrations in Belgrade and Novi Sad; but on TV that night, this American-encouraged campaign was virtually unreported. More on media strategy and tactics below.

Depleted Uranium Ammunition: Preliminary

This is way overdue and I am sorry that I have not written a report before, but I will avow that while depleted uranium ammunition may have very localized toxic effects, it does not present a long-term radiological threat to civilians. This entire debate is Left-on-Left environmental disinformation perpetrated by the Ramsey Clark crowd and class-action lawyers --junk science. The literature is replete with invocations of false authority and arguing beside the point. Further, barely any DU ammunition was used at all, since most attacks were high-altitude bombing strikes, not low-altitude strafing. On the other hand, an estimated 90,000-plus population of unexploded cluster bomblets do present an immediate danger of accidental explosion-- four children got killed by one in Kosovo on Monday.

"Depleted" really means something --less radioactivity but high specific gravity-- and DU is the less radioactive residue after uranium has been concentrated for fuel rods and weapons. The decayed ore remaining has just enough residual radioactivity for, as one scientist described it to me, "inventory tracking purposes." DU material is 65% or so less radioactive than natural ore, which is only 0.11% radioactive to begin with according to a Nuclear handbook published by anti-nuke scientists from MIT, published in 1985 and in my possession. Our New Hampshire farm was situated near the "young" White Mountains (65 million years or so) with higher levels of radioactivity in their granite and basalt bedrock. That's the science.

If used at all, DU ammo was only fired by A-10s hunting tanks in Kosovo, itself. DU is also used in anti-tank ammunition used by the US, Russian, Yugoslav and other armies, but is not used in bombs dropped on infrastructure targets. Since the A-10s were kept up at high altitudes during the air war, and since only about 23 tanks and personnel carriers were destroyed by all NATO weapons, I frankly think that very few DU rounds were fired at all. You would not strafe tanks from 5,000 feet, much less 15,000. The A-10s usually worked as spotters, finding targets for the F-16s and their bombs. That's the military situation.

An aside: the Russian, Yugoslav and other former East Bloc armies also use DU ammunition to punch through tank armor. Readers should know that European farmers are still occasionally killed by plowed-up unexploded World War I and II artillery shells.

At The UN: "Moral Hazard" and Rebellion Insurance

I've found an ironic application for this advice; the UN will help those seeking to help themselves to others' lands, if the political and humanitarian pitch falls within its parameters for spin control. --"Have a media plan and a sponsor."

There is a concept called "moral hazard" which specifies that preventive policies actually generate the behavior they are designed to prevent. It is a form of action-reaction that generates an increase in unintended consequences. For example, insurers discovered a few years ago that automobile air bags --then in luxury cars-- generated more accidents among luxury car owners, who felt insulated and immortalized, and, therefore, took more risks. Another example is US Federal Flood Insurance; which allows a homeowner to rebuild and refurbish a home on demonstrated unsafe ground. In the Sermon on The Mount, (St Matthew 7: 24-27), Jesus was quite specific about site selection. Infantry follow the maxim "Take the high ground."

I invoke "moral hazard" to the UN and Mr. Clinton's new initiative to "solve" civil wars while encouraging "self-determination" for minorities and interventionism for regional coalitions-alliances. We will generate more by encouraging self-determination while offering moral hazard insurance to rebels through the offer of intervention. The pattern is clear: UN Secretary General Kofi Annan declared Monday that the UN will now be in the business of intervening in Civil Wars, to save the "innocent." This is a growth industry for the humanitarian NGO establishment; great make-work; Mr. Annan still aspires to having his own army with rapid deployment capabilities.

Tuesday, Mr. Clinton polished his "Clinton Doctrine" for intervention in his speech at the UN: it had three points: a war against poverty, prevent or stop mass killings and displacements --stop civil wars-- and contain weapons of mass destruction (WMD's).

The nuances in the speech are: a suggestion that relief to the people of Iraq should increase; and, having failed to stop the spread of WMD's at the government level, he shifted the goal posts in order to at least, prevent their getting into the hands of terrorists (already a coequal goal, now the only one). Once adamant that WMD's could be contained (a fallacious proposition from the get-go since the programs were underway and have both a proven deterrent and terror value), Mr. Clinton now has to propose to we listeners that North Korea and other states can be expected to handle their nuclear, biological and chemical weapons programs responsibly. More "Slick Willy."

Have a laugh at this; the self-determination concept is already having an interesting effect in some US Indian tribes (they really do call themselves Indians among themselves and at their websites, so spare me PC explanations about "native Americans"). The Oneida tribe of the Iroquois Nation has an ambitious leader with plenty of casino cash and has started to swamp around at the UN, lobbying for international support for his campaign to erode Federal sovereignty and further explore the unique situation between the Indian Nations and Washington. Some other tribes are also interested.

Given the international community's latest flop in East Timor --increasingly clear that the reporting is lop-sided in favor of the Catholics and the "former Marxists"-- there will be lots more tragedies stirred up by outsiders encouraging groups to realize their ambitions to "self-determination." What will constitute a successful candidate group will become clearer in the waning months of the Clinton Presidency --the next US President can stop this nonsense, after all.

Taiwan: Update; Taiwan has decided to send a naval squadron out to tease Beijing in its latest initiative: From China News, 21-Sep-1999

China, having put itself on track for the WTO, continues to respond cautiously, but I did see something about their testing a new Gerald-Bull type super-gun (380mm caliber?) in the wires a few days back.

© Copyright 1999 by Benjamin C. Works -- SIRIUS WWW.SIRI-US.COM

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EUROPE: Yugoslavia's stand keeps the Danube divided in two: Belgrade's refusal to clear three bombed bridges has hit a crucial supply route to central Europe. Robert Wright reports:

The Financial Times ; 22-Sep-1999 01:51:09 am

A bright new Hungarian flag flutters above the Bulgarian barge nosing its way up the Danube in the heart of the Hungarian capital, a symbol of the new reality facing many shippers who ply the Danube.

Until this spring, the Danube, Europe's second longest waterway after the Volga river in Russia, was the cheapest way to ship some bulk products from the Black Sea to Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Bavaria and other parts of central Europe.

Since April 1, however, when Nato bombs brought the first of three bridges in the northern Serbian city of Novi Sad crashing into the international waterway, the river has been cut in two.

The Bulgarian vessel is one of many from that country that were left stranded on the upper Danube. Despairing of the slow progress towards clearing the river since the end of the war, some owners have reflagged the vessels to allow them to do at least some work on the surviving, upper Danube stretch.

A meeting today between the transport ministers of Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine - the three downriver countries most dependent on shipping for their livelihoods - will attempt to hammer out a common response to the problem. However, objections from Belgrade are threatening to keep downriver barges away from their home ports well into the new year.

To Dusan Dimitrejivic, the question is a straightforward one. He is an economic affairs counsellor at the Yugoslav embassy in Budapest, which also serves as the country's mission to the International Danube Commission, the body set up by treaty to oversee the Danube's operation. His main concern, he says, is to ensure the safety of the river if it is reopened to traffic.

However, he also says that Belgrade will not allow the river to be cleared until all three bridges over the Danube that were destroyed by Nato have been rebuilt, at the Nato's expense. "Bridges are an economic facility," he says. "They enable transportation of goods, transportation of people. We should really be putting our best efforts jointly into overcoming this brutal attack on the Danube."

Other countries believe the Serbs are dragging their feet to force the international community to lift economic sanctions.

Gabor Horvath, spokesman for the Hungarian foreign ministry, says that while rebuilding the bridges would be viewed as structural aid, demining and clearing the river of wreckage would be humanitarian aid, which is still permitted. The Yugoslav authorities are unwilling to separate the two issues.

For countries immediately upstream of Serbia, such as Croatia and Hungary, the problem is particularly pressing because of fears that ice could form on the wreckage if the winter is harsh, damming the river and causing floods upstream. Downstream, the pain is purely economic.

Serbia has imposed a system of licensing on vessels wishing to bypass the blockage via the Serbian canal system. The Yugoslav authorities have been accused of discriminating against licence applications from Romanian and Bulgarian tug owners because of their countries' support for Nato's air bombing campaign.

The canals are, in fact, of little use to larger vessels as the locks on the waterways are short. But frustration with the continuing difficulties have led owners of the Romanian Danube fleet, one of the largest on the river, to stage a three-day blockade last week. In retaliation Romania has closed its Black Sea canal to Yugoslav vessels, some of which it has impounded at the Black Sea port of Constanta.

For most countries, however, the blockade has not been catastrophic, according to Laszlo Csaba, professor of economics at Budapest University. While some 100m tonnes of freight were shipped on the Danube at its peak in 1987, the Yugoslav wars and changing trade patterns in eastern Europe reduced the flow to 40m tonnes last year.

That will be small comfort to those who have seen their livelihoods ruined by the blockage. Nor will the comparatively small cost of clearing the damage if a political solution can be found. According to Mr Horvath, all that is needed to clear the river is Euros 14m (horn>

© 1999 by The Financial Times

© Copyright 1999 by Benjamin C. Works -- SIRIUS www.siri-us.com