SIT-REP 9-17; Friday, September 17, 1999

Roundup - Colombia-Venezuela; Timor; Taiwan-China; North Korea; Yugoslavia-Montenegro-Kosovo; Air Wars, Yugoslavia-Iraq

This is an interesting departure into new territory, but SIRIUS does look at evolving situations constantly. On Monday night I had the delight of dining with two friends --sisters-- who are half-Colombian, half-American and are tied into the best minds in Bogota, as well as New York. Their father is one of the finest minds I know, and we have worked together from time to time, in past years. They had eyebrow raising information on Colombia and Venezuela.

It appears, I am reliably informed, that the charismatic megalomaniac president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, has ambitions to reassemble Simon Bolivar's "greater Colombia" from Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Ecuador and god knows where else. This is openly discussed in the Colombian press. Further, a friend at FoxNews, who interviewed Chavez while the paratrooper was in jail after his 1992 coup attempt, confirmed that the Gran Colombia scheme was already fixed in the populist dictator's mind --Chavez intends to dictate, not preside.

This is dangerous because though Chavez is reforming the economy by privatization of government enterprises, and cracking down on corruption, he has also launched a constitutional convention to re-write one of the most elaborate Constitutions in order to neutralize his foes in the Centrist parties and to weaken Venezuela's legislative branch. His constitution will grant dictatorial powers, but his programs will please the masses --that's the way tyrants start.

Pipe dream or threat? That constitutional dictatorship accomplished, he can become dangerous to the Colombians by supporting the FARC and ELN communist guerrilla movements; those groups already lap into eastern Venezuela and southern Panama when they need to find safe havens. That Venezuela is America's leading supplier of crude oil makes for interesting complications and consequences in coming years. We will look for more corroborating information on the extent of Chavez' ambitions and present it to our readers in due course.

A number of foreigners, including Americans, were kidnapped in northern Ecuador the other day, FARC or independent banditti are suspected; kidnapping is the now the big game in Mexico, Honduras, Colombia and in other Latin countries. After six-plus years of Clintonian policy pursuit, chaos and drugs are spreading. SIRIUS is up to speed and watching this evolving mess.

Timor:

I want to keep this brief; my understanding of the deliberate choice to mount regional intervention efforts is increasingly clear --dumb me not to absorb the point sooner. By mounting regional operations, the US and its like-minded partners keep the UN out of the command process, leaving the coalition the option of how much force to bring to bear, including deadly force under the "all means necessary" clause in the UN Charter's Chapter Seven. This works whether the ultimate intervention is "legal," "necessary" and the right thing to do, as with Timor. It also worked in the Kosovo air war --brutal coercion that was of highly dubious legality and

It looks like there could well be a little old-fashioned slaughter and butchery in Timor as the militias appear to want to keep at least 8 western districts and are threatening violence. Britain has contributed approximately 250 Nepalese Gurkhas, whose fathers chased the Indonesians out of Borneo in the 1950s and early 1960s. Though mountaineers Gurkhas proved excellent jungle fighters when necessary and they are much tougher than anyone on the Indonesian side. But my colleague, David Hackworth, warns that the Australian infantry --"Diggers-- have been "sissified" since the days when I served (and caroused) alongside our Australian allies in Vietnam. (Nam vets may remember the local nickname --"Uc da loi" for "red rat," after the red kangaroo stenciled on Aussie vehicles.)

Indonesian militias are sharpening their knives for a fight, but appear only to have support from some "renegade" generals who have local economic interests. The militiamen brag they will eat the hearts of the Australians, which, I think, will cause the diggers to rise to the challenge. This also sets the level of butchery --very not by

Geneva Convention rules-- that can be expected. Local standards of conduct obtain and it will not be pretty, another reason to keep American troops and the UN's humanitarian establishment out of the way. Troops officially land over the weekend, with the US providing transportation and some 200 on-the-ground support troops. It will be interesting.

Taiwan and China:

I'm beginning to think that Taiwan's Pres. Lee is up to something bigger than "wag the dog;" it could be "legacy building," which is much more dangerous --"father of his country" monuments and "edifice grandiosis" (TM) do not come for small leaders. Articles about Taiwan this last week or so suggest that Lee is pushing hard. One thing was a meeting with Central American states in Taipei last week, where Taiwan again asserted its independence and continues to get its friends to support its admission to the UN.

Taiwan and Hong Kong, as "economies" are seated independently at APEC meetings, so there was a Taiwanese deputation at the Auckland meeting where President Jiang pushed Mr. Clinton hard on its World Trade Organization membership. Taiwan's Lee holds the initiative in this "two-states" issue in most ways, but Beijing has its own diplomatic initiatives --the indirect approach-- on, including WTO, Panama, Timor and "crazy" North Korea. So it is time to invoke Theory A/Theory B: Wag the Dog or Edifice Grandiosis. We shall measure the confrontation and see.

Note: "Edifice Grandiosis" is as old as the pyramids and is now a game for corporate and college CEOs as well as national leaders of all stripes.

North Korea:

I notice that North Korea suddenly turned "cooperative" with the US in Germany while Jiang is making progress at APEC? Sandy Berger has bribed Pyongyang with sanctions easing on the mere promise they will not test-fire their already developed missile. This means that they can continue to develop it; even tests components, even peddle parts and technology to others. Meanwhile there are new intelligence reports of an underground plutonium processing facility.

Mr. Clinton continues his "Dane Geld" policy of bribing North Korea and it all serves to encourage more misbehavior -negative reinforcement is the term psychiatrists use. To embellish the Clinton legacy, it appears a more fully-evolved threat will be handed to the next president --Al Gore or George W. Bush. But that possible future disaster will have developed on Clinton's "watch." Today, Mme. Albright lifted substantially all restrictions on trade with Pyongyang.

Serbia-Montenegro-Kosovo:

Some weeks ago, Montenegro's president, Milo Djukanovic, gave Belgrade a six-week deadline for renegotiating the constitutional relationship between the two remaining constituent republics of Yugoslavia: "parity or divorce," is the message, and the deadline date falls on Sept. 25th. Readers know that the US and others present Djukanovic as a sterling democrat, but in fact, he is the principle smuggler of Marlboro cigarettes into Italy --Montenegro is an ancient home of "the Invisible Hand" of free-trade and smuggling around bureaucratic export-import laws.

In short, Montenegro is home to many mafia enterprises and serves as a convenient safe-haven for Italian mafiosi "on the lam" from indictments before Italian courts. Drugs and illegal refugee emigrants are two other principle exports of little Montenegro, where a population of some 600,000 hold out, lured from loyalty to Belgrade by the proffer of generous terms for an independent state from the US, NATO and the European Union.

In Kosovo, the UN colonial regime and its military force, NATO and K-For, continue to assert they are adhering to practices that will lead to a multi-ethnic society under the rule of law and free markets, but that is not what activities show. Virtually every clause in the G-8 agreement has been violated. General Clark has decreed that token army and border guard forces will not be allowed in to maintain Yugoslavia's sovereignty and to protect monuments. The first police academy class began with only one Serb member and no Gypsies, Gorani, Turks or others. The first supreme court justices were appointed --again no Serb, Gorani, Gypsy or other was appointed as the UN "could not find" qualified candidates. Under self-rule in the 1970s and 80s, the Albanian courts were used to harass and beggar all non-Albanians trying to defend their property and rights. It also appears that any Albanian can accuse any Serb or Gypsy of a "war crime" and get him arrested, whether there is any evidence or not.

The colonialists are issuing ID cards and passports to "all comers" including anybody from Albania clever enough to allege Kosovan residency. Customs posts are being opened between Kosovo and Serbia, another clear violation; while the UN has decreed the German Mark will be the trading currency, not the dinar or dollar. The KLA will reform as "The Kosovo Corps." Interestingly, though it is not a recognized interim government, the KLA has gone into an at-gunpoint tax collection business, demanding a 10% tax from all merchants in a giant protection racket.

As with the choice of the German mark, NATO has made the provocative decision to appoint a German General as the next K-For commander when Sir Michael Jackson leaves next month. That evokes the Nazi terror of World War II as well as the Prussian-Austrian terrors of 1914-18. Jackson will be promoted to command the British Army. Every insult is being offered to Yugoslavia and to "truth."

Well, all the UN and K-For efforts cannot make a civil society out of Kosovo when the barbarian KLA gangsters rule the urbanized majority --which sought to trick independence through non-violence and dread their mountain cousins more than they dreaded the Serbs. With the additional pressure of Montenegro's demands, it strikes many people that there will be another war, this Fall or in the Spring. And there is no credible evidence that anybody in NATO is doing anything to head off that war. In such a war, K-For is incredibly vulnerable to a surprise attack, but in the end, NATO would justify the final carve-up of Yugoslavia, including, I expect, the cleansing of the Serbs still in Bosnia.

Kosovo and "Lessons Learned"

General Clark is defending NATO estimates of damage done to Serb military forces in Kosovo, but I find no reason to believe that allied air power hit more than 20 or so tanks and some armored personnel carriers; pretty much what the Yugoslav army reported in June. Nor are other analysts buying the official line; we saw the good condition of those troops and equipment exiting Kosovo as NATO moved in to "stop ethnic cleansing."

The following is an excerpt from the current issue of US News & World Report, available on line, it concerns me because it indicates strategy going in the wrong direction:

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/990920/kosovo.htm; U.S. News 9/20/99; The bombs that failed in Kosovo

My point is this; that "experts" are pointing towards general terror bombing, rather than at destroying enemy armed forces; while continuing to refine our low-risk style of warfighting without US casualties. Since civilian populations are larger than their armies and are spread over larger geographical areas, this will prove foolish and illusory --diluting attack energy-- on one hand. It will provoke further developments of WMD technologies and unconventional means of WMD delivery, including terrorism, which will require rising civil defense costs on the other side of the ledger.

Iraq:

The idea of this strategic emphasis leads to the unresolved air-ground skirmishing between US and British aircraft and Iraq's ground defenses. Though it has been relatively quiet for a couple of weeks, there were new exchanges on Monday. This air campaign is getting nowhere, and Iraq has benefited from what the Yugoslav armed forces learned in the Kosovo air war.

At the same time, Washington embarked on a new publicity campaign to demonstrate that Saddam was destroying villages where "food riots" had occurred while also building a luxury amusement park and other infrastructure for his Baathist Pary and military elites. This campaign was featured in Monday evening's news shows and the Tuesday papers and reflects increased jockeying at the UN to substantially reduce or end economic sanctions on Iraq. In exchange Iraq's "friends" expect to install a loose inspections regime that would focus on monitoring old WMD sites, while ending the search for new sites and secret weapons stockpiles.

© Copyright 1999 by Benjamin C. Works -- SIRIUS www.siri-us.com

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