SIT-REP 9-11; Saturday, September 11, 1999

In This Report: The Timor Crisis-II; Dagestan; Kosovo- It's a Duck

Sermonette:

Kindly remember that though the term is used pejoratively by Clinton and other proponents of "The Third Way," Nationalism is both the anti-thesis to homogenizing imperialism and to a categorizing sectionalism-ethnicism. Nationalism usually is a unifying and patriotic impulse, a positive force that builds polities. Xenophobia and chauvinism are the negative forces of "divide and rule," which lead to robbery, pillage, murder and destruction --beggar thy neighbor. Imperialism is inherently insensitive and deleterious to peoples everywhere, whether it is Roman, British or the UN's coercive Utopian globalists.

Politics is impatient and rests on the passion of the moment, diplomacy rests on reason and patience. In the absence of a handy-by election, politics seeks crisis; external or internal. Democracy and diplomacy, Tocqueville observed long ago, do not mix well:

"Foreign policy demands scarcely any of those qualities which are peculiar to a democracy; on the contrary it calls for the perfect use of almost all those qualities in which a democracy is deficient. Democracy is favorable to the increase of the internal resources of a state, it diffuses wealth and comfort, and fortifies the respect for law in all classes of society, but it can only with great difficulty regulate the details of an important undertaking, persevere in a fixed design, and work out its execution in spite of serious obstacles. It cannot combine its measures with secrecy or await their consequences with patience. These are qualities which are more characteristic of an individual or aristocracy."

- Tocqueville; Democracy in America, 1835 ed.; Pt I, Ch. 5

The East Timor Crisis:

It is obvious that there will be an international intervention in East Timor and that the US will participate in its early stages, since we have Naval and Marine forces just 100 miles away, in Darwin, Australia, while the leaders of the Asian-Pacific community are all in Auckland, New Zealand for the APEC conference --all except President BJ Habibie of Indonesia, that is. Australia's government understood the prospect for disaster and properly prepared for that; the rest of the international community didn't quite believe them.

Rumor flies! Just what, really, is going on inside Indonesia and inside East Timor, beyond the short range of vision of outside observers remaining in those little compounds in Dili? There is no basis to believe that the situation is any calmer anywhere else. The best estimates are that about 1000 are dead, 100,000 forced to evacuate and 200,000 rendered homeless out of a population of 800,000. And this has happened in just over a week.

A local ruling caste is punishing its rebellious "serfs" and has gone to the length of murdering priests and nuns --adding religious fuel to an ethnic and class power struggle. Why did Australia understand the problem and why did nobody else, save perhaps, Portugal? Why is the world's fourth largest nation (212 millions) on the verge of chaos and implosion? Is it stupidity, conspiracy or some of both? I think both, with more than a soupcon of the usual arrogance on the part of the US and others.

Thus, I have to support the policy of an international intervention, hopefully in cooperation with the government of Jakarta and have to support the interim use of US troops if the chaos in Dili continues. But I am damned angry at the incompetence demonstrated by the US and other principle actors in this newest fiasco of the "New World Order's" globalist establishment. Our professionals simply do not understand stimulus-response/actions-reactions at all well. Every action generates positive and negative reactions, as well as side-effects. This is where dying and destruction come in.

The US Armed Forces have attempted to adhere to the evolving principle of regionalism, where Australia and other Asian neighbors should handle regional crises on their own. This policy relieves the US of being the global policeman. General Shelton was caught this week in between defending and advancing that principle, and the sudden escalation of this particular crisis. Despite that, forces are in the neighborhood. Congress is caught in limbo as there was no big pool of PAC money to buy support for Timor, or for Indonesia --as there is money and propaganda buying influence in the ethnic wars of the Balkan states.

It appears that Australia will take the lead for the long-term and has prepared its forces for immediate deployment. In the short term, I expect US Marines to go ashore to help at the front end, then leave as others join the mission. At the APEC meeting in Auckland, Australian Prime Minister John Howard said Saturday that Australia, New Zealand, Britain, Canada, Portugal, Malaysia and the Philippines had offered to provide peacekeepers to an international force. Britain has 2 ships and 100 Special Air Service (SAS) commandos in the area already.

Curiously, because the US, Australia and others are trying to act cooperatively with Indonesia's leaders, PM Howard has a problem at home. He has elections coming and the opposition has been taking advantage of short-term delays caused by the diplomacy, to accuse him of weakness. Anti-Howard demonstrations are growing in Melbourne, Canberra and other cities. But it is clear that Howard has made every possible preparation and that the fault lies with others.

What bone-head scheduled the UN-backed Timor resolution in the middle of what turned out to be the post-election "lame duck" inter-regnum in Jakarta. What idiot then failed to hand-hold Jakarta through these shallow shoals? Without excusing those who commit violence, we must, at some point look at the lunatics in the internationalist community who arrange these gravity-defying events. Politics always stimulate passions and the politics of divorce stimulate violence. The internationalists now propose to make war on 212 millions for the sake of 800 thousand in order to clean up a mess that the internationalists, themselves, precipitated.

The answer (as reported in today's New York Times by Barbara Crossette and other reporters) is that the Portuguese and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan took the lead in arranging the interesting timing. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers continued the economic coercion of delaying a $45 Billion IMF economic aid package, coercion which assured the retirement of General Suharto in May, last year, but has contributed to continued economic deterioration and social unrest. The package will now be further delayed according to late wire reports.

Thus, the mistakes (or deliberate errors) include these:

The timing fell within a 6-month "lame duck" power vacuum between the June election and November Parliamentary decision on the new President,

Habibie and Wiranto were not properly "advised" and steered through this by knowledgeable diplomatists;

Economic relief was not restarted to reinforce the central government's credibility;

Outsiders did not properly understand the economic interests of local generals.

In Jakarta: Instead of quiet, collegial and consultative diplomacy during the months between Indonesia's own elections and the East Timor referendum of August 30, only more casual diplomacy seems to have occurred. Just four months ago, a retired military colleague of mine was on a mission with other generals and political scientists, advising the Indonesian military on how to democratize, getting themselves out of civil government and out of the habit of owning corporations while on active duty. Four months ago, that audience was willing and cooperative, but since then, backed into a corner, Jakarta's elites are increasingly paranoid that there is a concerted plot to bust up the entire country.

In a Friday interview, President BJ Habibie met the Press in order to counter rumors of an imminent coup. He directly referred to the "Balkanization" of Indonesia; which is precisely what Western Media speculation has been dwelling on (in fact, not name) for the past several days. It appears that the man thought by all to be the real power in Indonesia, General Wiranto, the Army Chief of Staff, has a "mutiny" of some officers on his hands. There are many officers with a direct equity stake in Timor, they appear to be those perpetrating this post-referendum crime wave.

Under pressure from UN Security Council and APEC gatherings, General Wiranto has, today, again acknowledged that some outside help may, indeed, be necessary to get the situation back in hand. At the same time, the UN's Mr. Annan began threatening possible war-crimes and human rights charges against key figures in Jakarta.

In Timor: When Indonesia grabbed East Timor 25 years ago, it was partly a penal colony and though Catholic, its newly independent polity was flirting with various degrees of Marxist and socialist politics, so Australia recognized the grab and most of the West looked the other way.

Indonesia's army apparently carved most of East Timor into a set of fiefdoms for generals and one estimate states that General Suharto owned 40% of East Timor directly. Further, there is oil and gas in the Timor Sea, between the island and Australia; some of which must be in waters Indonesia will lose to an independent republic. Thus, it is understandable that those elements would trash the province in the wake of the election as a means of punishing their "ungrateful" serfs.

The few knowledgeable reporters on the ground --Aussies mainly-- attest that this is precisely what is happening. Records are being burned to cover up past misgovernment and crimes, while the economy and housing stock are being trashed, looted and burned. (See www.theage.com).

The question has been, is the violence a deliberate action by all the armed forces, or by some of those with local interests. Could quiet consultative and logistical support to General Wiranto have helped him prevent this mess? I believe so, as I believe he knows there was more to be gained in a clean divorce than in a criminal mess. But western diplomacy increasingly consists of blunt bullying and financial blackmail.

In sum, by creating this latest fiasco, the globalists have again "stumbled" into further precedent setting compromises to the principles of sovereignty. Nothing like a crisis. We will find many continuing to wonder whether this was stupidity or conspiracy; again, it looks to me like it comprises some of both.

Dagestan: Thoughts on Counter-Insurgency

In the last report I observed that in my view the Russian forces (Army and Interior Police) had probably picked an unnecessary fight with the Wahabi district in central Dagestan. Let me also observe that the Chechen guerrillas have also made grave mistakes, as invaders.

In a guerrilla, both sides should be at the business of "winning hearts and minds." That is, both are seeking to build political support. The Vietcong, we learned the hard way, spent more effort on the political struggle than on the guerrilla; and mixed positive programs, with negative brute force by establishing schools and clinics while assassinating Saigon's rural elites in the classic "decapitation" of the enemy's socio-political infrastructure. America's Green Berets understood the need for a blend of positive programs and necessary force, but the lessons learned by them have not proliferated widely. This is basic marketing; spin control does not work in the paddies, jungles or on the stony slopes of the high frontiers, where people must eke out their living and have no time for elegant theories.

The Chechens, as ethno-religious ideologues, tried to conduct a military, rather than military-political invasion. That made them foreign invaders with an agenda that does not fit the majority of the ethnic populations in Dagestan. The fact that they attempted a second invasion, as Russia was trying to impose its civil-oriented will on the religious-oriented Wahabi, can be no more successful, as Wahabis and Chechens together represent a minority, but have ethnic differences which usually wind up being more important than religious similarities, once the guns and knives come out.

Despite its errors, Russia retains the advantage in this nasty little side-show. But when we look at unconventional warfare --guerrilla wars-- it is good to remember that the military usually brings only negative force to bear --brute force. It also comes in only when the crisis is full-blown. If the ground and demographics are right for a "divide and conquer" strategy of brute force, the government forces may be able to win through brute force, if they are "efficient." But brute force alone is not as "effective" as it is efficient. Counter-insurgency strategy must consider both elements, compared to the root causes, be they ideological, sectional, ethnic and/or religious.

Some ground is ripe for a blunt contest --as the Dagestani mountains are right for an attrition battle against outside invaders who are not particularly agile in their political strategy, given the lopsided odds. But similar terrain on a larger scale worked well for the Afghans against the Soviets. Jungles are particularly bad for government forces, as we learned in Vietnam and as Colombia has experienced over the last decades of fight with the FARC movement, which is centered in the Trans-Andean lowlands and "foothills" among the peasant villagers who grow coca leaves necessary to feed international substance abuse.

Part of the reason for this writing is that we are seeing elements of this play out in Kosovo, Dagestan, Colombia, East Timor and other locales. Dear readers: I am having ongoing conversations with other keen minds on this subject, so feel free to chip in, if you wish and can.

Kosovo:

To my readers more interested in Yugoslavia, there is an obvious difference in treatment between Indonesia and Yugoslavia, of course. It smacks of hypocrisy, clearly. It is that Indonesia is big and host to much US and other foreign investment, as well as energy reserves. Too, there are the Riady family interests --and other "friends of Bill." The deftness is in rescuing Catholics while not offending the Muslims that the Clintons love to encourage. Lastly, demonizing Indonesia drives them into Beijing's arms, something that also eventually profits the Riadys and Lippo Group. As to Kosovo:

"It looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck: it's a duck."

- American saying

Let's see, the KLA will be reorganized into "The Kosovo Corps" and some 3000 troops will have uniforms, weapons, and even helicopters, but they are not an army? This is de-militarization? Dis-arming? Bernard Kouchner euphemistically refers to this proposed accommodation as a " a civil emergency force." I love Orwellian political-speak.

Looks like a duck to me, and a clear violation of the G-8 cessation of hostilities agreement between Yugoslavia and NATO. Force and fraud continue at play in this homicidal farce. I wonder if the KLA will revert to their straight-armed fascist salute, (replaced under pressure from NATO during the air war by an American style forehead salute) and continue their goose-step march (never abandoned as film clips during the war repeatedly showed).

There have been interesting statements made in the Yugoslav press, precipitated by the ongoing NATO-KFOR violations of the G-8 agreement's conditions. President Milosevic has called for the long-delayed return of Yugoslav police and soldiers to protect religious shrines, cultural sites and the borders. The commanders of 3^rd Army (General Nebojsa Pavkovic) and the Pristina Corps (General Radovan Lazarevic) have both indicated their armies are ready to go back into action in Kosovo, to protect sovereignty and the rights of all peoples to "life, liberty and property." I would caution Yugoslavs to sit back a little while longer, while the K-For mission continues to thrash in its mountain of fatal contradictions. "A housed divided against itself cannot stand," and the KLA is frightening everybody but its fellow gangsters.

Following these statements, NATO seems to have found a further means to provoke Serb nationalists --a German General, Klaus Reinhardt, will replace British General Mike Jackson in October.

If asked, I would counsel Serbs and Americans alike to a little more patience, while the truth seeps out, out of reach of NATO's spin-doctors. Crises have an uncanny way of eventually responding to the laws of nature, not the rules of politics. Consider what independent radio station B-92 reported the other day:

Though, like everybody else, Surroi fails to acknowledge the violence against other minorities, he accurately reflects a large element of Kosovo's native Albanian population, faced with the prospect of domination by a combination of native and foreign-born thugs and mobsters. The other side of the coin is that to NATO and K-For, Kosovo is clearly a worse-than-Mogadishu trap, where the KLA is more lethal than General Aideed's clan militias with their "technicals" --those pickup trucks with M-2 machine guns and other weapons jury-rigged in the cargo bays.

This is not to say that NATO's political masters will call this a defeat and willingly abandon the Kosovo Albanian population (citizens and illegal immigrants alike) to a restoration of the status quo ante. But a new American Administration or a change of mind in Congress could create new diplomatic realities. Fabian caution, not fatal audacity, is called for in coming months.

© Copyright 1999 by Benjamin C. Works -- SIRIUS www.siri-us.com

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