SIT-REP 6-15; Tuesday, June 15, 1999

CHAOS & EXODUS: A SECURITY VACUUM & RUSSIA'S GAMBIT

NOTE: I will be in Washington, DC from Wednesday to Saturday, attempting to inject a little sense inside the Beltway. This includes discussions about Kosovo and humanitarian relief, plus work on military reform with "Soldiers For The Truth." The last nine days have been a nightmare in making arrangements for these parallel projects, hence the low rate of communications. Kindly refrain from sending anything but the most necessary e-mail.

Kosovo -- Iraq -- Korea

As forecast in my last letter --not a tough call, given the evidence and leadership in question-- the exodus from Kosovo is underway, and chaos is general inside the NATO-created mad house that is Kosovo this week. The KLA, unrestrained, is flooding into a vacuum, and all Kosovo's minority communities are headed for the fire escape. Armed lunatics are, indeed, in charge of the asylum.

I think NATO just demonstrated that not only does in not know how to prosecute a war, it does not know how to pick a war, and does not care to know how to mount a proper post-war occupation; rather, to save soldiers it created a vacuum which forces for chaos could exploit. Nor did NATO negotiate the international protocols for their occupation force properly, as Moscow demonstrated. Lack of care in preparation leads immediately to unnecessary casualties and chaos. This time, the Clinton Administration is responsible for its own black eye.

How about Russia occupying that airfield with a relative handful of troops --200? How about that sudden North Korea-South Korea naval skirmishing just as NATO moves into the Kosovo security vacuum? How about those ongoing US v. Iraq air-ground skirmishes? "All the world wondered."

In the past two days it has become clear that the Russian move to occupy the Slatina Military Airfield outside Pristina was not a mistake made in a confused chain of command. It appears Mr. Yeltsin meant to command the attention of the NATO powers when they continued to ignore what Russia, China and others --now including India-- consider rightful concerns about Clintonian and NATO hegemonism.

Russia means to reinforce that small but effective spearhead with a larger force -- 1500-2500 as soon as it can transfer troops in from the Bosnian occupation or fly fresh troops in from Russia --the US and NATO have been attempting to get Hungary, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria to deny Russia access through their airspace. Thus, Mr. Clinton could not clear up the problem in a single call, or two, or even in a set of interchanges involving Mme Albright and Vice President Gore with their counterparts. Now, Mme Albright and Secretary William Cohen will have to meet their counterparts, Friday, in Helsinki, for a face-to-face exchange. Helsinki·. Hmmmm·. That is where the OSCE's "Helsinki Accord" prohibiting the changing of borders through violence was negotiated back in 1975. How appropriate to negotiate Kosovo's status there.

Lieutenant General Sir Michael Jackson is in command of the Kosovo Peacekeeping Force (K-FOR) and had to accept that he could not use the Slatina air base as his headquarters, though he attempted to dismiss that as not his eventual preference. Hell, NATO needs a major airfield facility and he cannot, yet, use Slatina without conceding something material to the Russians. Tuesday evening though, in an appearance on ABC TV, Jackson indicated that in his view Russia's insistence on a role was reasonable and thought it was more a political than military problem.

Importantly, in that same interview, Jackson dispelled Administration, NATO and media spin, by confirming he was seeing substantially less destruction of housing than he was led to believe during the bombing campaign --Jamie Shea was lying nakedly about the 500 burned out villages, and Steven Erlanger's reports were more accurate.

As NATO built up for the occupation, in the wake of Rambouillet, way back in February, Jackson named the Operation "Agricola" after the Roman General who laid waste to much of England, to call that devastation "peace." Jackson's own occupation arrangements have also created a desolation, which NATO is attempting to cast as peace.

Jackson's masters created a security vacuum, deliberately so, it appears. Serbs are evacuating throughout most of Kosovo, which those who favor a greater Albania don't mind. But the hypocrisy lies in that Gypsies, Turks, Gorani and the others are fleeing as well, rightly fearing the KLA terrorists who sought to bully and intimidate them, while not fearing the Serbs. NATO has ethnically purified Kosovo for this racist Mafia, just as expected --even moderate Albanians will not be safe as time will show. This additional traffic in the general exodus is proof of the KLA and Albanian extremists' "racism" but the media gloss over the fact --remember that no major media outlet ever reported the presence of Gypsies, Turks and the others until Steven Erlanger visited Prizren. Now tractor-loads of Gypsies are labeled as "Serbs" in a photo in the New York Times and every refugee is described as a "Serb" by CNN, MSNBC and FoxNews, through every news cycle.

It also appears that NATO may well be recycling pre-bombing campaign "atrocities," in some of the mass grave tales being told on the cable news networks. In particular, descriptions of freshly dug graves in mountain villages near Kacanik sound like those of people killed in a KLA-police fight that dates back before the bombing began --the details are still missing in newswires buried too deep in my primitive archive fills to find today, but the police had a fierce little fight with the KLA. A SIRIUS reader also remembers details about Kacanik, a loyalist industrial town and wrote the following:

From Louise Arbour's indictment, issued from The Hague, we already know that the international community is blending pre-bombing events with events during the air war to achieve critical mass in developing a prosecutable set of crimes against humanity. For NATO in its occupation phase to counter Russia's victory with an exaggerated set of alleged war crimes goes hand in hand with the rest of this Machiavelli-Kubrick-Orwellian propaganda package. --Remember, Sir Michael Jackson has partially dispelled NATO's exaggeration of the extent of house and barn burnings.

In this security vacuum, there is real awfulness going on from extremists on both sides, but it appears the KLA is working overtime at creating problems. Serbs and other non-KLA supporting communities are rightly fearful of the safety of the good people inside their monasteries, convents and village churches. The New York Post reported today that 10 KLA gunmen entered a large Serb village and cut the priest's throat inside his church. Other sources reported German troops standing idly by as KLA gunmen desecrated other churches in Kosovo. The details stack up to chaos and mayhem, whether NATO troops are present or on the way --NATO is doing nothing to protect religious sites or non-Serb minorities, which is shameful.

There is a point to the Press emphasizing the violence under the "if it bleeds it leads" principle of journalism as marketing. The Press overwhelmingly favors the KLA and is pleased to support the Clinton Administration's implicit policy of making Kosovo only safe for anti-Serb Albanians. Pacifist leader Ibrahim Rugova, himself, is not safe, as the KLA views him as a "Quisling."

Let's face it; when the armed extremists come out in revolutions, they always wind up running the post-war government. In this case, the KLA explicitly stated today that it expects to become the official army of Kosovo. NATO keeps pretending it will ultimately de-militarize the KLA. This is an overt failure to communicate objectives consonant with the peace plan. Well, Serbs departing Kosovo made their opinion clear: if the KLA is set up as an army, Serb guerrillas will be back; if it continues, we have a guaranteed next Balkan War.

As days pass, the Myth of Decisive Air Power will evaporate; Russia's strategic ploy over the Slatina airfield is another indicator that the strategic game is still open and that there is where the victory can be whittled back down; just as Saddam has whittled down the victory of Desert Storm in the Clinton years..

Korea: I do not believe the Russian move is at all "mistaken" or tactical --that is a momentary policy pique. I believe the Russian signal represents a fundamental, abiding, strategic warning to the Clinton hegemonists.

I neither believe North Korea's crab-fishing boat crisis is random or coincidental. I think it is an indirect signal from Beijing, which I believe, holds more influence over its Korean client than is immediately apparent among punditry.

Both sides have inflicted casualties in this new Korean confrontation; that is a serious message to pay attention. North Korea has mobilized along its borders. Seoul is at alert status and the US has put its 37,000 troops on "DefCon-4," the highest alert status shy of a shooting war.

Gossip: This is just a rumor, but I am told it is an "informed" one. I take this on a "what if" basis: the buzz in Belgrade is that Slobodan Milosevic is planning to retire from office as soon as Russia has stabilized the Kosovo occupation problem. What if he did resign early and pre-empts further attempts to strangle Yugoslavia economically? Since Mr. Clinton has made this a war against a dictator, not a people, where is NATO's stance on Kosovo, relief and reconstruction then?

Footnote: "Slobodan" means "free man" in Serb. So, to sneeringly refer to "Slobo" is to refer to "free." Not much of an insult to the Serb mind.

© Copyright 1999 by Benjamin C. Works -- SIRIUS www.siri-us.com