SIT-REP 5-27; Thursday, May 27, 1999

NOTE: I have added an archive file on Albanian American campaign contributions at the website, in the Kosovo archive. The new file is "AlbanianAmericanPAC1980-99.html," or something close to that.

In This Issue: Odum's Vojvodina Fantasy; "Special K's" Kosovo, Korea & Kashmir

"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer," Alexander Pope advised. I am catching up on topics, still and have set aside Mr. Clinton's New York Times essay --a model of fallacies in logic, for a detailed "deconstruction at a later date. For now, George F. Will, in today's New York Post, observed, rather nicely: "Bill Clinton, a better president than columnist, traduces the truth the way a shark feeds --relentlessly, voraciously and as a metabolic necessity." Now that is simile at its finest, and the opening 7 words faint praise, indeed.

I would like to underscore that the American Legion, representing some 2.8 million American Veterans of World Wars I & II, Korea, Vietnam, Desert Storm and other adventures, has come out squarely against the NATO Air War against Yugoslavia. So too has General H Norman Schwarzkopf, who accused NATO of muddled leadership and chose to make his thinking clear on a speaking visit in Sydney, Australia, a nation not at war with Yugoslavia, as Reuters reported:

General Shalikashvili, in an essay circulating on the internet among West Pointers and other retirees, is also cautiously skeptical, as are an increasing number of real experts. It is clear that most "ground-pounders" and combat officers are against this campaign, whether or not they understand that it is in violation of treaties and charters. On the other hand, there are still plenty of staff-types and some combat arms veterans who will gladly talk on air about invasion. There was a flurry of speculation this morning when a London paper leaked a "trial balloon," that Clinton was considering committing 90,000 US troops if a deal is not struck in three weeks. A check with Pentagon sources scotched that rumor. I think General Shelton and the others still dread a ground campaign. But the trial balloon lofted again this afternoon.

Jimmy Carter also came out against the NATO air war today, in a New York Times column. "How did we end up in this quagmire?" Carter asks. "We have ignored some basic principles that should be applied to the prevention or resolution of all conflicts·" He elaborated further, of course.

Lt General William Odum is one such staff-type who is particularly voluable about a ground invasion as a "cake walk" through Hungary and Croatia, as he is attracted to that nice, flat, alluvial farmland of the Vojvodina. This terrain would appear to be ideal armor country and once was. But times have changed and Vojvodina is much more developed than map-readers might imagine. General Odum has let his senses succumb to the lascivious allures of "Ms. Rosy Scenario."

There are stout farm houses and barns all through the countryside, each of which represents a fighting position for infantry with anti-tank missiles, satchel charges and other weapons --just as Yugoslavia manufactures its own shoulder-fired anti-air missiles, it makes Russian Sagger and other anti-tank weapons and has plenty.

Vojvodina is analogous to the North German Plain, which also became heavily developed by the mid-1970s. Germany developed a defense-in-depth plan for resisting a Soviet armored onslaught by using its regular and reserves in their farmhouses and barns, using missiles and anti-tank hunting techniques. Farms are close enough to allow for overlapping and interlocking fields of fire. A determined defense can make such densely populated farm country almost as lethal as urban street fighting for the attacker. A fluid defense in depth could make an armored invasion ugly for both sides, but generate casualties unacceptable to NATO-member electorates.

Germany expected to fight with NATO air superiority but adapted its ground tactics to small groups, to protect from catastrophic casualties from Soviet artillery. Expect the Yugoslav army to make Vojvodina a similarly hellish battleground, using small detachments against allied armor. Also expect that in the still-officially unlikely event of a NATO ground invasion, the Serh infantry would know to go after the Bradley armored fighting vehicles, which are easier to kill and generate more casualties than the more heavily armored Abrams tanks. Once the armored infantry is thinned out, then the tank-hunters go after the tanks.

So much for lap-top commandos and rear-echelon strategizers. On with the real analysis:

Lieutenant General Michael Short USAF, the air commander, is mounting his 1990s version of "Bomber" Harris' "thousand plane raids" of 1943-45. In Monday's Washington Post, Short revealed he is as detached from sobriety as the characters in Kubrick's "Dr. Strangelove," as other essayists have also observed. Specifically, Short said this: "If you wake up in the morning and you have no power to your house and no gas to your stove and the bridge you take to work is down and will be lying in the Danube for the next 20 years, I think you begin to ask, 'Hey, Slobo, what's this all about? How much more of this do we have to withstand?' And at some point, you make the transition from applauding Serb machismo against the world to thinking what your country is going to look like if this continues."

It seems General Short continues to believe that you can bomb a civilian populace into surrender, despite all evidence to the contrary. This also completes belying Mr. Clinton's initial assertions that the air war was aimed at Mr. Milosevic and not the people of Yugoslavia. Last night, General Short's deliverymen hit Belgrade with more than 40 missiles and bombs, in one incident killing three girls who were guilty of being at home on a school night. Who is genocidal?

Kosovo:

Canada's Lloyd Axworthy is getting a bit nervous about the naked brutishness of NATO's strategic targeting of urban civilian infrastructure, but Mme Albright shored up his courage in a meeting-press briefing today. ``At this time, we have to make doubly certain that the military targets that are chosen are chosen very carefully and that every effort is made to ensure that collateral damage is at the absolute minimum,'' said James Wright, a senior official in the Foreign Affairs Department, as quoted by the Associated Press, yesterday.

Today, Albright had Axeworthy joining her call for Milosevic to be delivered --somehow-- for trial, but it is clear Canadians are nervous about their role in this fiasco, as are the Germans, Italians, Greeks and others. Also, 28 House Democrats who supported the bombing are now calling for a three-day pause to give Yugoslavia a chance to begin withdrawing troops and "to give peace a chance." The Clinton-Blair policy fails to persuade.

An Indictment: At the same time, fellow-Canadian Louise Arbour, aspiring to her expected Supreme Court nomination and miffed by Mr. Milosevic's refusal to meet with her last week, has issued a war crimes indictment against the Serbian leader and four of his deputies. Obviously this indictment could have been issued now or later, later would be better if NATO wants to sustain the "illusion" of good-faith talks to end the crisis. But Ms Arbour works for the UN, not NATO.

It is odd that in her indictment, Ms Arbour only documents 340 alleged murders; hardly a genocidal level and very much in line with reports by Steven Erlanger and Paul Watson. "There is a credible basis to believe these accused are criminally responsible for the deportation of 740,000 Kosovo Albanians and the murder of over 340 identified Kosovo Albanians," Arbour said. We shall see who the 340 are and when they were allegedly murdered; before or during the NATO bombardment. Since the KLA committed many well-documented acts of murder and "genocide" in 1998-1999, we could wait to see an ICTY indictments of Commander Remi, Drini or other murderers, but we know that will not happen. So much for "blind justice" or even-handed justice.

But as I have observed with Sadddam and the indictees of Bosnia many times over the years, to indict somebody is one thing, but you have to have prisoners and trials or the process discredits itself. Speaking of which, Saddam has still not been indicted for his crimes against humanity, has he? The ICTY is little more than "name-calling," at this stage. If Mr. Milosevic, Mr. Karadzic, or General Mladic were ever delivered over for trial --which I doubt-- too many inconvenient truths about Croatians, Bosnians and other the "crimes" of other international leaders might come out. Historians would have a field-day re-writing what pliable journalists have mis-written.

Actions generate reactions, but Mr. Milosevic remains a calculating and rational actor. If NATO and the International Criminal Tribunal-Yugoslavia (Ms Arbour's court) want to raise the stakes, Milosevic can see the raise and up the ante from his side of the table. Just how remains to be seen; but the US faces a broader range of problems and challenges (Korea, Iraq, Kashmir, etc.), while to Belgrade, Kosovo is the only issue.

In Kosovo: the border fight --that "meat grinder" continues, with the KLA seeking to force the army to concentrate into targets large enough to merit NATO cluster bombs and strafing from B-52s, F-16s and A-10s. NATO continues to strike at towns in Kosovo, generating further refugee movements to get away from the bombs. These displacements NATO continues to label as deliberate surges of cleansing by Serbs, or, alternately, "human shield" activities if Albanians are killed by NATO bombs.

Irredentism: NATO appears to be pulling yet another dirty trick under the table: the Serbian republic in Bosnia reports that it has taken in some 38,000 refugees from Yugoslavia, but food relief programs have been closed down, so Republica Srpska is low on food. This leads Serbs and their friends to suspect the NATO game is to further dismember Yugoslavia and to complete the ethnic cleansing of Serbs from Bosnia to the benefit of Alija Izetbegovic's post-Nazi fundamentalist government --yes, Bosnia's president was the leader of the Islamic Nazi brownshirts of the "Young Muslims" during and after World War II, a fact that has been obscured in the long propaganda campaign against the Serbs.

It is also increasingly apparent that there are many seeking to reawaken irredentist sentiment in Hungary and Bulgaria; this element has hit the cable news networks. Hungary can aspire to reclaiming part or all of Vojvodina, some argue and Bulgaria might seek to reclaim part of Macedonia, with Albania and Greece seeking to carve out other parts. So as this continues, there goes the whole Helsinki Accord and other treaties designed to prevent the success of irredentist movements.

The Victims: Before looking at two other crises, I would like to observe that a former UN employee, now a Boston banker married to a lovely Krajina girl, took me to task after the last report for giving the appearance of launching a blanket ad hominem attack on all Albanians. I dispute that as my argument remains focussed on the KLA, the Heroin Mafia and the "racist" extremists of Kosovo and northern Albania. Those who naively followed Rugova's non-violent movement and certainly Albanian loyalists have been badly mauled as a consequence of the extremes the KLA has resorted to and provoked among Serbian extremists.

Not every Albanian American pizzaria owner is also a heroin and cocaine dealer; not every Kosovo Albanian is a mafiosi. But Kosovo remains a nasty civil war, not worth the Billions of Dollars we are now going to spend in this new adventure in nation-building. They are certainly worth some billions in relief, now that NATO provoked their displacement, and deserve some consideration, but the KLA's civil war is not worth a single American --or even English, Serb or Albanian civilian's life.

Say what you want, but when the guns come out the extremists set the agenda, not the moderates. The KLA is a racist, terroist group at its core and bombing to support the KLA is like bombing Dixie to install the Ku Klux Klan in power: "KLA equals KKK," no matter how its apologists explain it.

As to the Albanian Mafia, even as I referred to the rape in Australia in the last report, I received a new tale of Albanian-on-Albanian violence against women:

Let Mr. Clinton's feminist supporters explain that one.

Korea and Kashmir:

While hounding the democratically-elected "dictator" of Yugoslavia, the real dictators continue to get away scot-free; Fidel, Saddam and Kim Jong-Il of North Korea. Kim is entertaining Clinton envoy William Perry, who has new and conciliatory proposals --bribes-- to offer for more cooperative behavior regarding weapons of mass destruction --more "Dane Geld." Pyongyang continues to seek ways to get others to feed its people and will send its number 2 man to Beijing next month, seeking to arrange more food from Kim's principal patrons.

Meanwhile, the world's largest democracy, India, and another nuclear armed democracy, Pakistan, are having a sudden and fierce confrontation in the disputed province of Kashmir. Today, it lost two Migs, one by Pakistani missile fire, and Islamabad has an Indian POW pilot in hand this evening. A cross-border artillery duel between the two countries has also been underway since May 9^th. This is an entirely different adventure than the long-running battle, dating back to 1984, on the remote Saichen Glacier, which was nicely described in last Sunday's New York Times (May 23^rd).

India's Hindu nationalist government collapsed last month in a vote of no confidence, and Prime Minister Vajpayee faces a challenge from the Congress Party of the Gandhi family, now led by Sonia, the Italian-born widow of Rajiv Gandhi. Elections are to be held in September and October.

So with Spring blossoming in the Himalayas, some 600 Muslim guerrillas infiltrated two to four miles into the Indian half of the divided land, settling on some high mountain tops that dominate a highway and the headwaters of the Indus River, just as it crosses into Pakistan. India was already skirmishing with some 5000 Islamic separatists inside its territory. The new infiltrators brought mortars and supplies; India thinks it could take months to clear the guerrillas off those heights. Now Pakistan disclaims knowledge of the guerrillas, but it was mighty quick to vigorously protect its airspace and this infiltration is very professional. Plausible deniability is being maintained by Islamabad. Just in February, PM Vajpayee had visited Lahore, Pakistan in a goodwill gesture which featured inauguration of the first-ever bus-compatible highway and bus service between the two long-time foes.

Here is an important key to understanding Kashmir, a province where a Hindu Rajah ruled a Muslim majority during the old Raj. The headwaters of most of Pakistan's rivers rise in the Indian-controlled side. If India wanted to render Pakistan uninhabitable, it need simply dam and divert those waters; which it has never done or threatened to do. --Curiously, the water melting off the Saichen Glacier runs off into Chinese territory, not into Pakistan or India.

Though both sides have tested nuclear weapons and medium range missiles in the last year, this has no immediate prospect of going nuclear; but Pakistan needs a patriotic diversion away from its communal violence and rampant corruption, as much as India's government needs a patriotic diversion to strengthen its hand in those autumn elections; so count on this going on for a while.

In other respects, India's air campaign, featuring satellite imagery as proof of the incursion, and multiple airstrikes intesticed with press statements strongly resembles NATO's campaign in miniature. In this case, though, both sides are playing the press conference game.

Russia is blaming NATO's behavior for encouraging this new confrontation's sudden blossom. ``Events in Kashmir again show just how dangerous is the precedent of force in international relations created by NATO's military actions in Yugoslavia,'' Moscow's foreign ministry declaimed today.

There is a UN Peacekeeping Force in Kashmir, but it has been ineffectual. Yesterday, Islamabad demanded that the United Nations immediately reinforce its group of military observers in the divided Himalayan region and that Secretary-General Kofi Annan send a special peace envoy to the region. Reuters reported yesterday that Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokesman, a Mr. Altaf said: ``The present situation requires that UNMOGIP (United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan) should be immediately reinforced and activated and the secretary-general should send an envoy to the region for the preservation of peace and security.''

We'll keep an eye out on this parallel situation, but do not see it going nuclear; it looks like a ethno-political divertissement to keep the voters puffed up on ethno-jingoism. Another little "wag the dog."

© Copyright 1999 by Benjamin Works --SIRIUS www.siri-us.com