November 24, 1999

In This Issue: Kosovo, Serbia, and Chechnya

With the Thanksgiving holiday upon us here in the US, I want to keep this letter fairly short. I want to underscore that there are many out there still trying to trick Serbia into yet another war, so that it may be carved up even further.

NATO allegations of a deliberate Serb-run genocide of Albanians in Kosovo are almost discredited --except the International War Crimes Tribunal for Former-Yugoslavia ("ICTY") continues to try to develop allegations into a credible package so that it may stage a show trial of Mr. Milosevic and others at some later date. Meanwhile, Serbia itself is prosecuting some alleged criminals for their crimes in Kosovo. I will get into the details, as I understand them, in a later letter.

Chechnya: The New York Times got a reporter into Chechnya to visit the newly re-occupied city of Gudernes.. On Monday (Nov. 22) Michael Gordon's report "In Occupied Chechnya, Order Without Allegiance" dispelled some of the Chechen propaganda about Russians "bombing women and children," which we heard so much about last week. It turns out, that though this war is as nasty as any civil war, Russia maneuvered the guerrillas out of the province's second largest city without blowing the place to smithereens. Instead, they negotiated the guerrillas' evacuation in a classic invocation of the "open city" principle. Russia virtually surrounds a town and then offers terms, via the local elders, to allow the guerrillas to evacuate in exchange for a non-violent re-occupation.

It is those same village elders whose confidence and cooperation Russia will need if it is to succeed in restoring order within an autonomous province. It seems some of Moscow's strategists have thought through the process of "winning hearts and minds," after all.

Albanian Attacks inside Serbia

The Albright foreign policy team has been trying to encourage Montenegro to secede and has suggested the possibility of an expeditious little civil war to oust Mr. Milosevic, but has found little enthusiasm for those options. The important thing today is that we are getting reports that Albanian terrorists are now crossing the border into Serbia itself and are attacking police and army units.

Kfor reported an attack early Sunday morning, but the independent Belgrade daily Glas reported Saturday that armed Kosovo Albanians had made a number of attacks on south-central Serbian villages close to the border with Kosovo. Late last Friday (Nov 19^th), the AP reported that a wounded Albanian gunman returned wounded from one little fight. By Sunday, NATO was forced to admit that Albanians had been attacking Serbian villages on and off for five months --almost from the moment Kfor occupied Kosovo in mid-June.

The attack Sunday morning included a brief fire-fight between Yugoslav forces and the guerrillas, who managed to plant two or more landmines before retreating. Several hours later a police vehicle hit the mines, which killed 2 and wounded six policemen. In response to the firefight, NATO doubled the size of its nearby roadblock and announced it would increase the scope of its border patrols in order to crack down on these Albanian provocations. But we analysts do not expect NATO to succeed so long as the KLA thinks there is a benefit in continuing the attacks.

The fact that these attacks have been taking place explains why the Yugoslav 3^rd Army commander has to periodically mount maneuvers and talk tough to the Yugoslav press. Clearly, the KLA and Mafia want to provoke some sort of military response that could justify further NATO bombing. Besides these little guerrilla attacks, the KLA has alleged that Albanian populations inside Serbia are being "oppressed," particularly in the southern towns of Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedza. Of course, those who have seen the map of "Greater Albania (www.aacl.org) know that the KLA claims rights to a large area of southern Serbia. Fortunately, calmer heads prevail in Belgrade and it is doubtful that these guerrilla attacks, by themselves, can provoke another war so close to the American primaries and Y2K presidential election. Serbia should raise this as a diplomatic issue though.

Crime, Chaos and Misery inside Kosovo:

Steven Erlanger, in Monday's New York Times, reported from Pristina that the situation in Kosovo shows other signs of KLA-Kosovo Protection Corps ("KPC") violence and intimidation of Albanians and the minority populations. Interestingly, in the article "Chaos and Intolerence Prevailing in Kosovo Despite UN's Efforts," Erlanger confirmed widespread mafia activity (looting, kidnapping and extortion) as well as KLA terror --though he cannot pin that terror back to explicit orders from its leadership . He further reported that the NATO-sponsored KPC has issued a leaflet, threatening Albanians who buy Serb property with retribution: "Whoever does not respect our request will be put before responsible authorities. Erlanger also reported that Kfor had found two illegal KPC detention centers and had freed a number of Serbs and Albanians ("suspected of war crimes") "some of whom bore evidence of beatings" according to his UN and military sources.

Erlanger's picture of Kosovo is a lot less optimistic than the rosy images generated by Mr. Clinton's brief photo-opportunity visit of Tuesday. In fact, due to UN-NATO incompetence and disorganization, it looks like Kosovo is in for a worse winter than the rest of Yugoslavia, because its power and gas supplies are still not repaired at all and because re-construction of winterized housing is behind schedule.

Serbs face an uncomfortable winter ahead, but they can keep an eye on the continuing farce in Kosovo and watch political support for the US policy fade. It is for those of us who are open-minded and independent to lead the media to the facts that were covered over by the US-NATO propaganda campaign.

© Copyright 1999 by Benjamin C. Works -- SIRIUS?WWW.SIRI-US.COM

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