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SIT-4-23 ; Thurs., April 23, 1998 (9:00 AM EST)

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* Strategic Issues Today - in the News:

* 1. Around Wall St. - The GM Building & REITS

* 2. Viva Cuba Libre? : Fidel, Sanctions and Foul-mouth Dan Burton

* 3. France & Rwanda - A Diplomatic Scandal gets Attention

* 4. Kossovo-Metohija - KLA Shooting and an Offer

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Dear Readers: Dr. Henry F. Carey and I have been moiling away to deliver a 23-chapter anthology, Issues of National Reconciliation in Eastern Europe to Columbia University Press for publication. It is much more interesting than the title suggests, but remains a bit academic and for those with a serious interest in whatâs going wrong with the process of emerging from Communism. That obligation off my back and with the Website design up and running, and having learned to code HTML and all, I can return to analysis on a more regular basis; hopefully at a rate of three pieces per week.

* ãFor the Children" Update: While Senator John McCain is doing his best to think and talk like a ãSoccer Mom?,ä Amnesty International launched a World-wide Campaign for Childrenâsâ Rights on April 22, 1998, hogging-in on Earth Dayâs pious crusade to save the Planet for them --On a WABC radio news update here in New York, I heard children singing a tragic propaganda rewrite of ãAmazing Graceä in a Union Square Earth Day ceremonies, ãWe will not Wasteä or some such gladsome tripe. There is nothing the Left wonât sully in its relentless search for heart-tugging symbolism and no child is safe from their brainwashing. Must be an Election Year --silly season is on-- more soon on Earth Day and re-writing history. Hint; Arbor Day is a hundred years older but the Left hadnât invented that.

1. Heard around Wall Street: REITS, Silver

* SIRIUS has picked up interesting information about the rapidly expanding real estate speculative bubble. The Simon DeBartelo Group has taken control of the GM building (767 5th Ave. at Grand Army Plaza, facing the Plaza Hotel across Fifth Avenue), as part of a merger. DeBartelo plans to sell its 1.8 million square feet for astronomical prices. Craineâs New York Business of April 13, described it thus: ãAnalysts expect the property to draw nosebleed offers of $450-500 per square foot from deal-hungry real estate investment trusts [REITs], foreign investors, pension funds and Manhattan players with deep-pocketed backers. A recent deal for 712 Fifth Ave. was struck at $525 a square foot.ä Crainâs lists USN&WR owner and Friend-Of-Bill (FOB) Mort Zuckerman, a second generation real-estate game player as one of the expected bidders, through his Boston Properties, Inc. REIT ãLet the investor beware!ä Hint: Zuckerman and father went trough one round of bankruptcies in the late 1960s.

* Here are your yardsticks; the architectsâ rule for pricing such a tower, fully furnished, runs at $100 per square foot. We have seen federal court buildings come in above $250 thanks to lax contracting and saw the once-secret National Reconnaissance Office building come in at similar prices. at $500 a square foot (/sf)the GM building is valued at $900 million. By the way, Bob Villa builds a pretty nice house at $40-45 /sf, excluding the land. A year ago, a trophy property on E 57th at 3rd went for $311/sf, while large buildings around Wall St. were priced at a mere $42/sf. Have seen some wild prices being paid for building sites around Times Square, too.

* Our Mr. Sparico thinks gold is in a rally. I do not disagree as it seems the central banks have rationalized and coordinated their gold strategy. As financial assets are being rapidly inflated in the stock markets and real estate is inflating fast, it is understandable that a little gold play should result, though Iâd be holding Treasuries and hedging the dollar. If this somewhat ameliorates the situation in South Africaâs mining sector, where 100,000 Lesothans alone face layoffs this year, so be it. We may see $325 near term. But we both note that Mr. Buffetâs play on silver is going nowhere fast. * I had a bit of a laugh comparing Buffet of 1998 with William Jennings Bryan, the other famous Nebraskan fancier of silver, who 100 years ago, took time off from his ãfree silver campaignä to help free Cuba. When the Spanish-American War was declared on April 25, 1898 (one hundred years ago this Saturday) Bryan promptly raised the 3rd Nebraska Volunteer Infantry and the McKinley Administration let him get as far as Florida, where he stewed in his command tent while Teddy Rooseveltâs 1st US Volunteer Cavalry got the glory. That set up the rivalry of the 1900 and 1904 elections --a neat tale lies in that. Scholars now understand that Bryan is represented as the Cowardly Lion in the parable of Populism and Free Silver, ãThe Wizard of Oz.ä

2. Viva Cuba Libre!

* As to Cuba, The New York Times of April 22 reports the US lost its case before the UN Human Rights Commission on maintaining sanctions against Cuba. Per the Times â Business Page of the same date, Fidel has already been visiting with officers of Caterpillar Tractor, Radisson Hotels and others. Ottawa has already announced PM Jean Chretien of Canada is planning a visit to Havana soon. Cuba is soon to be liberated from the Helms-Burton Act; no wonder Dan Burton used such injudiciously foul language about Mr. Clinton. There was a time when American politicians could damn each other more creatively, and Indianans are rarely so foul-mouthed. We will be visiting Senator McCainâs astonishing bouts of piety soon, as well.

3. France & Rwanda - A Diplomatic Scandal Gets Attention:

* In SIT 3-31 (available as a back-issue at the Website), I printed an AP story detailing some of the investigative reporting of St-Exupery of Le Figaro ; and the revelation that the missiles used to shoot down the presidential airplane at Kigali in April 1994 had been captured by French Army forces during Desert Storm. On April 22, Craig R. Whitney of The New York Times took note of public hearings into the role France appears to have played in supporting the Hutu government that unleashed the murderous butchers who subsequently killed off between 500,000 and 1 Million souls in a three-month period. It is clear that the French governments obstructed effective UN intervention before, during and after these 1994 atrocities and that they are still attempting to cover their tracks. US non-intervention at the time, more clearly appears to be part of a quiet determination to support Uganda and the Tutsi-led liberation effort, which then supported Laurent Kabilaâs knocking over Mobutu in 1997.

* As part of Kabilaâs takeover of Zaire, some 80,000 Hutu refugees from the Goma camps disappeared and the UN Human Rights Commission and High Commissioner for Refugees have been trying to investigate. Alas, the Hutu refugees were among those supporting the butchers, so, even as Mary Robinson et al, earnestly stew about the stonewalling, it is a bitter truth that the disappearance of those Hutus has the sanction of the US, Uganda, Britain and other key players. This would make an excellent investigative book, but I think Mr. St.-Exupery has the inside track. Keep an eye on this story, as there are some interesting hypocrisies with wider implications for the states of French West Africa. Remember that SIRIUS told you first, and told you this on March 31st.

4. Kosovo-Metohija - New Trouble Forthcoming:

* The Yugoslavia-wide referendum as to whether Serbia should accept an international mediator between Serbians and the Albanian separatists of Kosovo takes place today and absentee balloting has begun. It is expected that Serbians and Montenegrins will overwhelmingly reject the proposition --no surprise.

* Yesterday, my Serb friend Goran was around and heâs nervous. He thinks the Army may have to reinforce the Police in Metohija for a new operation. The shooting by KLA guerrillas picked up again about a week ago as these internationally-defined terrorists started to harass Serb villagers in several mixed hamlets near the Albanian border in the Decani district of Metohija -the church dominated half of the province. This has received scant attention for several days, but there have been AP & Reuters dispatches. My friend ãMickeyä happens to be in Kosovo visiting his brother in their childhood village near the Macedonian border and we await his report upon his return --he always begins with extended, noisy gasconnading that would outdo Cyrano de Bergerac.

* It is worth noting that on the 15th Belgrade made clear they will offer the local Albanian separatists what is in OSCE and treaty terms, a reasonable deal in conformity with Human Rights law. Kosovo-Metohija and Vojvodina will both get a return to their prior status as autonomous provinces of Serbia (suspended by Milosevic, including local legislatures that have reasonable local powers. Obviously, the Albanians of any given town, elect their mayors and other officials and control those local offices and services. What the provincial legislatures will not get is the sovereign powers of the states or Federal level, and Albanians in Kosovo will not have the power to seize Serb lands and buildings on a ãright of eminent domainä basis, or to take over government property and enterprises of the Federal or Serb & Montenegrin States.

* Not all Kosovan Albanians support this Rugova-KLA conspiracy at independence through tricking the humanitarian West. In fact, most Christian Albanians who have lived with the Serbs for centuries strongly oppose Rugova and his Muslim immigrants, hence they get shot, harassed, etc. for continuing to serve as postmen, forest rangers, local officials, etc. Rugovaâs people walked off their jobs and walked out of their schools, refusing to teach their children Serbian anymore. Given these facts and the number of SS veterans and SS veteransâ sons involved in Rugovaâs LDK party and in the outlaw KLA, one can understand why there is not more pressure on Serbia.

* Steve Skakel spent last week in Albania both in Tirana and northern Scutari and reports a worsening mess with widespread anarchy outside the Capital and monumental corruption within.

* On April 15, The Christian Science Monitor published a pair of articles (available on-line)focused on outside support for the KLA and Rugovaâs LDK political front and tracked back to former NY Democrat Congressman Joe DioGuardi, whose father was lbanian. His quoted remarks are dangerous and irresponsible, to say the least and his political contributions should be shunned by both Democrats and Republicans; however, DioGuardi has Benjamin Gilman and Jesse Helms.

* DioGuardi heads The Albanian-American Civic League and openly advocates carving a ãGreater Albaniaä out of parts of Greece, Macedonia, all of Kosovo and part of Montenegro. This just does not conform with OSCE law or any other international law. Given the chaos within Albania, a responsible leader would focus on that, not on tricking the world into a general Balkan war. Oh; donât forget that Bob Dole is in cahoots with DioGuardi; proof it is a bad policy.