Benjamin C. Works, Executive Director

--Celebrating Chaos Theory Since 1990--

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SIT 8-24; Wednesday. August 26, 1998

- Winston Churchill

Yesterday morning, in a taped interview-discussion with a young producer from Fox-5 News in New York, I was asked what New Yorkers in particular had to do to protect themselves from terror bombing. I suggested that New Yorkers are already well-schooled in self-protection against crime and ought simply to pay attention to the news, in case something specific is up. We should not succumb to unreasoned fears, superstitions and melodramatized terrors as lurid media coverage so often invites us under its "if it bleeds, it leads," ethic..

The more important point came up; I told Fox-5 these attacks are more likely abroad and tourists, as well as our embassy and military personnel are potential targets, depending on the country, with Africa and Asia as the most likely places. Kaboom; perhaps 2 or 3 hours later, a bomb went off in South Africa, and in writing yesterday's informal piece (not filed on the website's front page, but archived in the recent issues), I guess it must already have been posted in the wires --I hadn't yet heard about the specific event.

I was not thinking in specific terms of Cape Town's Planet Hollywood restaurant, but if ever there is an American target worth a smaller bomb, it is anything to do with Tinsel Town, as far as Islamic fundamentalists are concerned. Business-minded me, I would think more in terms of American corporate and banking offices, but I guess this even puts McDonalds in play --get take-out and enjoy your lunch in a park. Fill out your own list of targets --Euro-Disney, Harley-Davidson cafes, etc. If abroad and near a US embassy, perhaps you might use the sidewalk across the street if the alert level is high where you are. If in New York or DC, relax, there's far too much fear mongering going on in this. I repeat, our Muslim communities are very good at helping the police crack down on would-be conspirators.

I would, with the above, invoke what we grizzled veterans of the "late Southeast Asian Unpleasantness" would call "Saigon Rules" when in public places, or what an old associate dubbed "Bogota rules" for his touring dance troupe in slightly less violent and unpredictable towns. Depending on the country in question --and the State Department has profiled the riskiest countries-- people will be instinctively conforming to high-crime area rules of personal conduct.

As to New York, we have the best defenses. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the UN General Assembly as Arabs propose anti-US resolutions, as trial negotiations continue, and as heads of state, including Mr. Clinton, troop through to make their annual big speeches. Because of the Arab-Islamic political agenda, I think New York will be the last place bombed, though security --and VIP cavalcade-provoked traffic-jams-- will be high to the level of annoyance.

I had read rumors last week that Abu Nidal may have been arrested in Egypt, but that has yet to be officially confirmed. In the LA Times yesterday and in today's New York Times, juicy details about this terrorist's arrest in Egypt came to light. Though still unofficial, the story is getting nicely specific. Egypt continues to deny it holds the terrorist chief.

When I last had sight of Abu Nidal --condemned to death by the PLO for his criminal acts-- he was in Baghdad, with Saddam, on the eve of Desert Storm. Apparently, he popped up in Egypt and came in from Libya, about 9 months ago. This connects dots between Saddam, Qaddaffi and Osama, in another odd way.

The handling suggests that this element is being managed within the greater story of shutting down Osama. According to the details fed to the Times, Egypt has been able to use Abu Nidal's group to assassinate some key Egyptian fundamentalist terror leaders, so this serves to stir the pot of suspicion between the fundamentalists and the secularists, as I mentioned yesterday, the only bond between Osama and Saddam is their mutual hatred of the US and Israel. Theologically-ideologically, they are at opposite poles on how to govern a country.

The infiltration of the Fatah Revolutionary Council and arrest of Abu Nidal, himself, helps to start to roll up and shut down that fratricidal terrorist outfit, but survivors will transfer in to other groups under the aegis of Saddam or Qaddaffi.

Another item in today's news flow is a report that Libya may be prepared to accept a Scottish trial at the Hague. Other sources think he will reject the offer. As I noted yesterday, this trial venue sets the stage for a verdict acceptable to the Arab world while recognizing the sovereign jurisdiction of a country where the crime occurred and which suffered the loss of human lives on the ground --many countries can claim a jurisdiction if their citizens were killed in the explosion.

If Qaddaffi, in fact, does accept a Hague trial, it means he knows the fresh evidence is stacking up against him again and that missiles might fly into Tripoli again. Last year, there was great sympathy in Islam for lifting UN sanctions against Libya, but that movement has shrunk from a roar to a whisper as the evidence stacked up.

I repeat my estimate that the Saudi kingdom and others are increasingly alarmed at the potential for the Osama message to upset their own governments, not to mention those of Egypt and Algeria. They also labor under the incompetence of their bureaucracies, the sprawling mansions of their past conspicuous consumption and the collapse of oil prices in the wake of the Asian contagion.

Copyright 1998 Benjamin C. Works-SIRIUS