Benjamin C. Works, Executive Director

--Celebrating Chaos Theory Since 1990--

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SIT 8-24; Monday. August 24, 1998 3PM

- Plato; The Republic, VIII, 566-E

I am on record stating a preference for an air-ground commando raid last week, rather than a simpler Tomahawk strike, but there are more than one ways to skin a cat.

As of Monday, Taliban has told Osama bin Laden, in no uncertain terms, to shut up and to stop making threats from their territory. This is not the same as ordering him to cease and desist all operations or to actually arrest him and close down operations, but Taliban is in a high-stakes poker game for diplomatic recognition from the United States, which will cede them the seat at the United Nations.

That makes problem for Bill with Boris Yeltsin, who fears Taliban will launch Islamic Jihads in Uzbekhistan, Tajikistan and Kazakstan, all of which have minority populations inside Afghanistan and which share its northern border. Recognition is also embarrassing to the UN's Feminists. But it is fair exchange for the end to the Osama international army and we shall see how the stakes are raised this week and next, when Bill visits Boris in Moscow after his Vineyard vacation.

(Despite the appalling revelations about Bill's treatment of the White House as a brothel, I expect he will remain President into October.)

After the Yeltsin visit and his stops in South Asia --if that is still on-- the UN General Assembly annual dog-and-pony show kicks off here in New York in mid-September. In that time, Taliban, Sudan and others intend to force an open debate about these Tomahawk strikes, but that gives Mme Albright time to cut a deal with Taliban.

Another important point is that there are further problems with the failing health of Saudi Arabia's King Fahd. He had his gall bladder removed a week ago and had to be re-hospitalized. Crown Prince Abdullah --long-time patron of Osama bin Laden-- may soon be monarch, though his fundamentalist wing in the royal family of 5000 princes remains the minority.

There appear to be a few new arrests of Arab fundamentalists in Albania and an Albanian policeman was killed while threatening our embassy in Tirana --seems he lost his temper over the way the FBI and CIA have combined with the state police to shut down the KLA.

About Thursday's timing; the Muslim sabbath is Friday --the big day for prayers and politics in the mosques, so to bomb on Friday-Sunday is out under the "Pearl Harbor" principle. Bombing on Thursday underscores a desire to whack that conclave of leaders reported last week, despite the side-effect of this being the topic after prayers the next day. This counters the Lewinsky testimony angle of the "wag the dog" theorists somewhat, though it is how the larger campaign evolves that will tell the story.

This is going reasonably well, for now; but there are too many open considerations still.

It is interesting that survivors of the camp bombing averred to the Press --in today's New York Times, for instance-- that they were simple theological Koran scholars at a nice country retreat camp. One swore they bunked in their "Mosque" every night. I frequently go on Church Retreat and make it a point to sleep in the chapel every night, don't you? The innocent Koran scholar blew his explanation to Raymond Bonner of the Times saying: "We will show the Americans when we strike back how God punishes them."

As for New York City, it is the opinion of our official sources that Osama has no active cells operational in the United States. That is probably so and it will be other cities in other countries that feel the heat first. Further, Osama's people are known to attempt elaborate aircraft bombings as well, for a change of pace.

It is important to stress that America's multi-ethnic Muslim communities have been very helpful in monitoring their communities in conjunction with law enforcement and this is particularly so in New York City.

During the September UN General Assembly, if Taliban is negotiating for its seat and Sudan pressing a case in the General Assembly to censure the US, then I would expect bombers to hold off, assuming they are plotting a strike against New York. The run up to those meetings holds a risk and the aftermath does as well. I was down at City Hall in lower Manhattan this morning and security there was increased, but not theatrically so.

I repeat my view that this war declared and waged by Osama against the United States has passed into a blend of police and diplomatic efforts, the military has dismantled the only major target it had. Perhaps a smaller target will appear from time to time, but let's see how the police roundup and Taliban's crackdown go.

Although Sudan opened the pharmaceutical factory site to the press who saw plenty of real human and veterinary medicine trashed on the site, the US National Command Authority has satisfied the major papers and the British government that it acquired a physical sample of a distinct "precursor chemical" used in making VX nerve gas. Sudan has made a case in the popular media that this is simply another "Baby Milk Factory" type outrage and that is what Arabs and American Leftists will prefer to believe.

Given the Baby Milk Factory, as the Washington Post's ongoing reports document at their website, was in fact probably not connected at all with chemical warfare, the Administration had to be doubly careful this time, hence covert collection of specimens. I believe in maintaining the integrity of our means of gathering this evidence should be maintained and this Administration is infamous for exposing too much technical detail of its satellite and other means, so let's not dwell any further on who got the sample and how. There will be further evidence to corroborate it and the US News and World Report amply documented Saddam's transfer of chemical warfare technology during the February Gulf Crisis.

Sudan will protest its innocence; the Security Council will have seen it. The US will get a tut-tut and humanitarian NGOs will deliver emergency supplies to Khartoum.

If Osama and his followers not under Taliban control continue their now 5-year old war against the US, they will be seeking chemical and biological means, which may be simpler to smuggle than TNT and Semtex. SIRIUS has picked up an indication --not fully confirmable-- that Osama and North Korea may be forging links. North Korea has enormous stockpiles of nerve gasses. So this front against the US and its hegemony may be widening.

Since the Arab Fundamentalists accuse the US of also being the font of all unholy obscenities and since such disgusting details are emerging of Mr. Clinton's use of the White House as a brothel, the US will have a difficult time refuting the core of Muslim criticism.

But in time, most Arabs and Muslims tend to take a fatalistic view of sufferings; "Inshallah." Only a few will continue to actively prosecute this campaign against the US, Israel and the non-Islamic world. In time, with a little strategic leadership --not a Clinton specialty-- this can be contained.

© Copyright 1998 Benjamin C. Works-SIRIUS