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SIT 12-29; Tuesday, December 29th, 1998

STRATEGIC ISSUES TODAY: More on Saddam and a Policy Shift

NOTE: Yesterday's report on Iraq is also included below.

Readers more concerned over NATO threats to Yugoslavia will be delighted to know that General Wesley Clark's attention has been diverted by yesterday's skirmishes in Iraq's Northern No Fly Zone. The Air Forces at Incirlik, Turkey, fall under Clark's NATO command, not under CENTCOM. This showdown with Saddam is very like the showdown with Mr. Milosevic in principles and practice and should be kept in the reader's mind.

Today, in Baghdad and at the UN, Iraq continues to assert it will shoot at US and British aircraft in both "No Fly Zones." After sending out my e-mail version of this report, I found Iraq also asserted that it is flying military aircraft in the zones while the US announced that due to bad weather it was not flying patrols over the Northern Zone. In response to the Iraqi assertion that it would fly and shoot, the US reaffirmed it will continue to enforce the zones. An interesting set of announcements taken together, in sequence --stimulus and response.

Things are not going entirely Saddam's way in the Arab world, but though its governors are doing their best to hold the line, Saddam is angling for radical popular opinion, where he has gained traction in recent weeks, as well as an independent ally in Osama Bin Laden.

The United States faces this dilemma, posed by Saddam's continuation of Air-Ground skirmishes in the No Fly Zones: If the US bombs punitively to chasten Saddam for these photo-op harassments of US and British aircraft, he gains support as a "victim" and if the USAF and RAF retreat from the zones entirely, the US is exposed as cowardly. Either way, Clinton and the West lose. Saddam will seek to keep the US tangled in that dilemma as it is the essence of his propaganda and diplomatic strategy. In time, he expects to further wear away at support for the continued economic sanctions and restrictions on his regime.

Time is not his only ally, embargoes and blockades only empower the smuggler and blockade runner, so vigorous entrepreneurs obeying the "Invisible Hand" of free commerce, will continue to erode away the effectiveness of sanctions. Restraint of trade has always been a bureaucratic tool of "mercantilists" seeking to gain control of taxable revenues. The modern application of blockades and embargoes began with mercantilist powers and almost always fail in the long run; only the Union blockade of the Civil War was effective in the strategic sense. The very notion of a "black market" is a canard coined by frustrated bureaucrats seeking to regain control. Smugglers will bring in the luxuries Saddam wants, but with high-value computer electronics and their convenient sizes, Saddam can get plenty of high-tech gear in with his imported whiskey.

Then, too, there are the long term interests of Russia, France and China for Saddam to take advantage of, as we have seen in recent debates at the UN Security Council. Further, not only does Iraq continue to serve as an Arab buffer against Aryan Iran, the very nature of the oil industry argues for a strong central power to maintain an industry that requires a national infrastructure. With three distinct ethno-religious factions (Kurd, Shiite and Sunni), the Baathist Party has a built in justification for an iron grip

From yesterday's reports it is fairly clear that the Iraqis were attempting to deploy groups of batteries in a form of ambush called a "Kill Box," where an aircraft is vulnerable from missiles fired from various angles. In this case the US struck back at a SA-3 battery which fires high-altitude, longer range missiles capable of dropping a U-2. We have seen this before in Desert Storm and in prior rounds of skirmishes. But I rely on our European (EUCOM) commander, though Wesley Clark is an Arkansas-Oxford lackey of Clinton's, to maintain a balance in the Northern No Fly Zone and on our CENTCOM commander, Marine General Anthony Zinni, to keep his mission under control in the Southern Zone.

Militarily, the US can dilute this crisis by not letting Saddam repeat these attempted skirmishes every day. The military should argue for restraint at the strategic level unless Saddam provides a fresh threat to the Kurds or to his neighbors. It is clear that the level of force the US can deliver at this late stage is not enough to suffficiently harm Iraq's military and government; they are calloused and inured to the size of strikes the US can deliver under current UN constraints, and it just gives them fresh propaganda.

Simply put, the Armed Forces can handle their end of the ongoing, but shifting mission of containing Saddam. Can the diplomatic side? This is where the mission is dicey and where Saddam is seeking to turn the shift into a policy rout where the Clinton Administration would be viewed universally as ludicrous.

The Clinton team is clueless on the policy side and proof of that is continuing to hype the CIA covert operation as a viable means of applying meaningful pressure on the Iraqi regime. This covert fantasy is merely a smokescreen by itself and in combination with sanctions, should the US be able to actually maintain those for the rest of Saddam's life. The same is true of the current policy shift regarding Slobodan Milosevic's regime in Belgrade, which is vastly less malignant than Saddam's regime, bizarre as it may be in its own way. There too, the US has begun talking about covert means of undermining the Serbian despot even as the OSCE seeks to restore a no-fault peace in Kosovo.

The good news is that following the wishes of the Gulf States, the Arab League has postponed until January 24^th a meeting that was to have begun on Wednesday. Egypt's President Hosni Mubarek, a prime target of Islamic radicals for his maintenance of peace with Israel, also renewed his expression of empathy for the Iraqi people and his contempt for Saddam.

At the UN, where the "enlightened" New Left aspires to imperial power, concern for the organization's credibility also continues to dominate over its sympathies for easing sanctions on human rights grounds. Their ambitions are in the balance; Saddam's victory would undermine the UN, the way Mussolini undermined the League of Nations in his Abyssinian conquest. Further, France, the "swing power" in the Security Council, by insisting on reasonable limits in easing sanctions, has drawn Saddam's personal ire. France also holds Saddam responsible for the bombing delivered by "Desert Fox."

Saddam, in his mind, has driven Richard Butler, the Australian chief of UNSCOM, out of business and has widened his spin against UNSCOM. Saddam's strategy had been to personify the standoff in Butler in the same manner the White House attempted to personify the impeachment investigations in Kenneth Starr. Now Saddam has described UNSCOM as an espionage conspiracy dominated by the "Anglo Saxons," whose heads of state, Messers Clinton and Blair, are in turn, captives of "Zionist Cliquies."

"Villify, villify! Some of it will always stick," wrote the French playwright, Beaumarchais. Mr. Clinton, like George Bush before him, finds it convenient to villify Saddam at every opportunity, and Saddam does likewise. Saddam and Milosevic have become indispensable enemies. But there are the other elements to the game. Nowadays, Saddam is scrupulous not to renew his threats against Israel or his neighbors, " proving that he is "innocent" and not a threat meriting punitive strikes against his government and people. Periodically, Saddam needs US bombs and Tomahawks to prove that point then mines those "inconvenient facts" of what damage stray missiles cause each time to "directly" afflict the people. From a strictly analytical view, it is fascinating to see how the propaganda points shift back and forth over time, as with the celebrated "talking points" the Democrats in Congress use with such effect against the Republicans day in, day out.

I will say this, Mr. Clinton's talking point to the Arab world fails as it is too fine a point for the unsophisticated mind of the public-at-large. That talking point attempts to isolate our focus on Saddam the evil man. Yet the bombs don't follow Saddam's peregrinating entourage, they hit buildings, killing watchmen and janitors. The talking point, taken in conjunction with the CIA covert operations smokescreen and the Lewinsky affair, leaves Mr. Clinton's credibility in jeopardy.

The only thing Saddam fears is the 18^th Airborne Corps visiting Baghdad, and that unit is not going to descend around him anytime soon.

About oil sales, Iraq has raised its daily export output to 2.51 million barrels/day (vs. its prewar level of 3.1 million under its OPEC quota). But at current prices averaging $8.23 per barrel, it is only capable of raising about $3.77 Billion per six month period, rather than the full $5.265 Billion allowed under the UN program.

© 1998 by Benjamin C. Works-SIRIUS www.siri-us.com

SIT 12-28; Monday, December 28th, 1998

STRATEGIC ISSUES TODAY: Saddam, SAMs and a Policy Shift

We are learning a lesson about half-measures in war and about untended static policies of aggressive containment; this crisis will be studied for generations as "how not to do it." It seems Iraqi tyrant Saddam Hussein wants to capitalize on current tensions and press on to further weaken the Clinton policy of containment. I think this situation will go on for a number of days and get worse at the diplomatic-political end, though our Air Forces know what they are contending with and know how to handle the actual problem of Saddam's missile batteries. Today the US confirmed that there were two incidents in the Northern No Fly Zone of Iraq, where Iraqi missile batteries fired twice at US jets, and both times the US aircraft fired back with missiles and bombs, damaging at least one of the Iraqi batteries. Iraq claims it lost 4 dead and 7 wounded.

First, Saddam alleged new missile strikes by the British and US around Christmas Eve and it appears that a dud bomb did explode, killing a child, several days after it was dropped. On Saturday, British Tornadoes were fired on by anti-air artillery in the Southern No Fly Zone, now at Noon local time (4 AM EST), US Air Force jets operating from Incirlik, Turkey were targeted by Iraqi missile batteries near Mosul in the Northern No Fly Zone, so both Zones are "Hot." These missile batteries were kept "off line" during the four nights of strategic bombing between December 16/17^th to the 20^th, but atop of ending UNSCOM, Saddam's government declared Sunday that Iraq will no longer recognize the No Fly Zones. They also created some confusion and tension over whether the UN Relief Distribution program could continue, but today affirm that the UN workers will continue with their projects. This is interesting dissimulation, designed to further generate confusion and contradictory reactions at the diplomatic level.

But the US destroyed more of his helicopters during Desert Fox and Saddam has no effective combat Air Forces, so his ability to contest the air patrols is limited to his missile batteries and "ack-ack" from his anti-air artillery (AAA or "Triple-A").

Britain, then the Pentagon provided confirmation that US aircraft in the northern no fly zone did respond to "attacks" by Iraqi air defense sites --missiles are likely if the US is expending ordnance. Usually the US fires a High-speed Anti-Radar Missile (HARM) from an F-16CG "Wild Weasel", while a companion F-16C/D drops cluster bombs on the missile site to damage equipment and kill personnel. This "Wild Weasel" mission is referred to as "Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses" or SEAD and Navy EA-6B Prowlers, with radar jammers and HARM missiles also participate in SEAD patrols and attacks over the Southern No Fly Zone. The HARM missile is designed to follow that radar signal back to its originating antenna.

SAM radars have two functions operating on different radio bandwidths; search mode and targeting mode. When the targeting radar "paints" or "illuminates" its target, a warning signal goes off in the US or British aircraft and the pilot knows to fire a HARM missile back at the radar. Iraqi missile batteries have learned to shut down the radar quickly to avoid damage from the HARM and I do believe the Russians have developed improved missile radar tactics and techniques, which the Iraqis may be sharing in, as is Yugoslavia. The HARM has a range of about 12 miles and has been fitted with a memory to record the point of origin of radar emissions if the radar beam is shut off.

I note this is rising in "tempo" immediately after Christmas Day; Saddam is timing this nicely to further his propaganda objectives. The US will have to attempt to minimize the gravity of these incidents, while Saddam maximizes his emphasis as part of the propaganda campaign --the real game here is diplomatic leverage, not downed aircraft.

The meeting of Arab legislators from 16 countries in Amman, which voted a resolution calling on the UN to ease sanctions on Iraq, works very much in Saddam's favor as will the Senate Impeachment trial starting after Jan. 6th. (More on that below.) That trial will coincide with the final week of Ramadan. I cannot tell in advance, but it seems to me that with incidents now in both northern and southern no fly zones, Saddam may press this ahead right away in a continues raising of tensions and tempo, or may let it sputter for a week or two (sporadic incidents) and then, during the Senate trial, force a crescendo that forces Clinton to fire another strategic level salvo from the Navy and B-52s. Such a strike will further weaken the US position in the near term, though CENTCOM is not about to get kicked out of Kuwait or the Gulf waters. The US may have to lower its profile, though, in Saudi and other allied states.

Looking at the wider picture, the US containment policy is shifting on a de facto basis, in response to Saddam's initiatives and the pressures they create around the world. Other opponents of Clintonian policies are acting out with increasing assurance, as with Beijing's prosecutions of leading dissidents and with the KLA acting out in Kosovo and inside Albania itself.

Clinton's overall foreign policy is rapidly losing credibility, and when an animal is wounded and struggling, the jackals and vultures begin to circle; that is what appears to be lining up. Since Saddam controls the timing, he can continue to create the appearance of the "Wag the Dog" effect.

I note that the Air Force AGM-86 "Tomahawk" CALCMs (Conventional-warhead, Air-launched Cruise Missiles) now have a new "Block 1" variant with a 3000 pound warhead and a shortened 650 mile range. I believe these are "bunker buster" penetrating warheads. The Pentagon confirmed some were used among the 90 "Secret Squirrel" CALCMs launched at Baghdad from Dec. 17-19. Supplies of air launched and ship launched Tomahawks is now considered to be getting tight.

More on the Diplomatic Side:

Saddam has a clear strategy of "victimization" and it is working; he is using "inconvenient facts," dissimulation and other tools of propaganda to win, including more "Wag the Dog" speculation around the world. The US is increasingly viewed as a hegemonist bully. Mr. Clinton's team has been trying to accomplish a policy shift under pressure --a retreat from the absolute sanctions regime imposed on a defeated leader. Saddam is trying to turn that strategic retreat into a full-fledged rout; and he has kindred minded leaders around the world who wish to further embarrass the US over its assertive hegemonism. This does not bode well for the Clinton Administration as their strategic choices all lead to retreat or at best, another Tomahawk Chop followed by retreat. Obtaining a diplomatic victory over Saddam at the UN is impossible under the conditions prevailing today.

But Saddam poses no conventional threat to his neighbors as his air and ground forces are weak and vulnerable to allied air attacks. Thus, since Saddam will not provoke a second Desert Storm, the CIA and Iran-Syrian covert operations will have to be the counter-pressure to Saddam's suspected attempts at covert terrorism. Saddam has made clear that UNSCOM inspectors may only return after sanctions have been eased and still demands that Richard Butler be fired. Now he has upped the ante by putting the No Fly Zones back into play. The US has already accepted the end of UNSCOM but hopes to maintain sanctions through use of its veto in the UN Security Council, but that will be increasingly difficult if Saddam can turn international opinion to ridicule of this US bullying.

I believe the best way out of this US policy shift-retreat is for the patrol aircraft to fly away from these SAM batteries for the next few weeks, deferring further exchanges, and I think it would be a major mistake for the US to fire another punitive Tomahawk Chop. Rather, CENTCOM should save its energies for an event where Saddam does pose a clear, renewed threat to a neighbor, or at minimum, launches an attack on his Kurdish minority in their protected enclave. I mention that as it is the next point on Saddam's long tern agenda to reestablish his sovereignty over the northern provinces, even at the expense of continued sanctions.

On Sunday, Arab lawmakers in Amman, Jordan, condemned recent U.S.-British air strikes on Iraq as ``unjust aggression.'' Legislators from 16 Arab nations in an "unofficial" meeting also called on their governments to work on the lifting of the U.N. trade embargo that has crippled the country's economy. Kuwait did not participate in the meeting.

The oil-for-food program staffed by some 400 UN workers, brings crucial supplies such as flour, lentils, rice, sugar and medicine to families struggling under U.N. sanctions imposed after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, sparking the Persian Gulf War. Though Iraq desperately needs the goods, it long has feared the program makes it easier for the world to allow the sanctions to continue.

``Iraq refuses the continuation of this project and demands the lifting of sanctions,'' Iraqi Trade Minister Mohammed Mehdi Saleh said. ``This means the ouster of U.N. teams which supervise it.''

Yesterday, U.N. officials declined to comment on Iraq's declaration and today Mr. Saleh back-peddled, claiming he had been misinterpreted by the Press. This is what I mean by dissembling to increase confusion, triggering contradictory reactions, debilitating the opponent's ability to respond coherently.

© Copyright 1998 by Benjamin C. Works-SIRIUS www.siri-us.com